Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drought Continues to Build in Central, Southern Plains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern that has missed the Central and Southern Plains where drought has increased and declining soil moisture in central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MIDWEST

Recent showers and colder temperatures in the Midwest are keeping soils pretty wet in a lot of areas and limiting fieldwork. A disturbance is bringing some showers to western areas on Thursday with more widespread showers indicated for Friday through the weekend. Two more systems will move through next week with more showers. Eastern areas may find a long enough window to do some planting this week, though wet soils continue to hinder that goal. Colder temperatures in place will also keep corn planting and wheat development slower than average.

INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A disturbance is moving through the Southern Plains with scattered shower potential Thursday, with more possible for Friday and Saturday with another system. Those showers are most likely across Nebraska and eastern Kansas. Another couple of systems will quickly move through the region early to mid-next week. Models are shifting southward with the storm track, which would bring potential for some of the western areas to see some better precipitation, which may have some limited impact on soil moisture. Deficits continue to be very large and the light to moderate showers forecast will not eliminate long-standing drought.

COOL AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Below-normal temperatures should remain the norm in the Pacific Northwest for the next week. Some showers will also move through at times, which may or may not produce some delays for wheat planting. The added moisture will be good for wheat development, though the colder temperatures will not.

DROUGHT REDUCTION AND MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

The last two blizzards have significantly reduced drought in parts of the Northern Plains over the last two weeks. Eastern North Dakota continues to deal with flooding, though warmer temperatures are helping floodwaters recede. Another storm system will move through Friday through the weekend with scattered moderate to heavy showers which may include more snow accumulation in the middle of the region. Snowfall amounts are not expected to be nearly what they have been with previous storm systems. The rains could resume flood concerns in eastern North Dakota. Cold temperatures in place will continue into next week, keeping melting slow and soils from warming quickly.

PLANTING WINDOWS BRIEFLY OPEN FOR DELTA

Mostly dry weather in the Delta should follow for the rest of the week and planting progress could pick up pace for the next couple of days, though soils are wet for a lot of the region. A system moves through this weekend and more showers will be possible with a couple more systems next week, making significant planting progress unlikely.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Safrinha corn in central Brazil continues to see declining soil moisture well ahead of normal. The absence of showers will cause temperatures to increase, producing even more stress. Some showers may move through the region in the middle-to-end of next week but would be spotty and not overly helpful. Southern areas will see waves of showers over the next couple of weeks that should maintain good soil moisture for developing to pollinating corn and winter wheat planting and establishment.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN ARGENTINA

Scattered showers are expected to continue in northern Argentina through the weekend. Showers at this point in the season will have limited positive effects for corn and soybeans while hampering the ongoing harvest. Recent increases in soil moisture over the south will favor wheat as planting gets underway.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Black Sea region for developing wheat. Isolated showers will provide some added rainfall, but drier windows will help with corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick