Commodities Market Impact Weather

Quiet Tuesday; More Active Later This Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of showers moving through the U.S. and decreasing soil moisture across central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

ACTIVE WEATHER STICKING AROUND THE MIDWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend and Monday, keeping soils pretty wet in a lot of areas and limiting fieldwork. A disturbance could bring showers to western areas on Thursday with more widespread showers indicated for the weekend. Eastern areas may find a long enough window to do more widespread planting, though wet soils continue to hinder to that goal. Colder temperatures in place will also keep corn planting and wheat development slower than average.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

A storm system brought scattered showers to some of the drought areas in the southwestern Plains over the weekend, but they were not widespread enough to have much of an impact for too many producers. More showers moved through southeastern areas and has been much heavier. A disturbance will move through in the middle of the week with scattered shower potential, with more possible for Friday and Saturday with another system. Western areas are unlikely to see much, if any, help while eastern areas will continue to find better showers.

COOL AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Below-normal temperatures should remain the norm in the Pacific Northwest outside of a brief day-long warm up here or there for the next 10 days. Some showers will also move through at times, which may or may not produce some delays for wheat planting. The added moisture will be good for wheat development, though the colder temperatures will not.

MORE SHOWERS COMING TO NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow fell across the middle of the Northern Plains while heavy rain fell over eastern North Dakota over the weekend, causing some flooding. There may be some showers in the middle of the week, but another storm system will move through Friday through the weekend with scattered showers, which may include more snow. Cold temperatures in place will continue to keep melting slow and soils from warming or draining quickly.

DRIER FOR DELTA

Dry weather over the weekend will turn a bit more showery as a front slides through the region Monday. Mostly dry weather should follow for the rest of the week, though, and planting progress should pick up pace. A system moves through this weekend and more showers will be possible.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Safrinha corn in central Brazil continues to see declining soil moisture well ahead of normal. The absence of showers will cause temperatures to increase, producing even more stress. Southern areas will see waves of showers over the next couple of weeks that should maintain good soil moisture for developing to pollinating corn and winter wheat establishment.

MORE SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers are expected to continue in waves across Argentina through Thursday, and across the far north going into the weekend. Showers at this point in the season will have limited positive effects for corn and soybeans while hampering the ongoing harvest. Wheat areas are more favored as planting gets underway.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Scattered showers moved through Ukraine over the weekend, but very little fell in Russia. Still, soil moisture is mostly favorable across the region for developing wheat. A couple of storm systems moving through this week will keep the showers going, though interspersed by dryness in a lot of areas. Precipitation over the last couple of weeks has been favorable, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick