Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drought Continues to Affect Plains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drought worsening through much of the U.S. Plains and decreasing soil moisture across central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention on Thursday.

PLANTING DELAYS CONTINUE FOR MIDWEST

A storm system will bring more precipitation through the Midwest this weekend going into early next week. Recent and forecast precipitation will make it difficult for fieldwork and planting. Though temperatures will be on a warming trend into the weekend, lower temperatures will arrive behind another cold front for next week, keeping soil temperatures sub-optimal for this time of year. There will be a drier period next week where soils may drain and possibly allow more planting progress despite the cold.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

Chances for precipitation in the southwestern Plains are low, but not zero through Monday. Northern and eastern areas should see rounds of showers as a system slowly moves through late this week and weekend. Windy conditions with the storm would be unfavorable in drier soils. Drought continues to have negative impacts on much of the region as systems miss the region and worsen the drought.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Below-normal temperatures continue across the Pacific Northwest through the rest of the week as well as some periods of showers. The moisture continues to favor increases for wheat already in the ground, while damp and cold conditions will make planting spring wheat more difficult.

ANOTHER BLIZZARD POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow cover in the Northern Plains will take a long time to melt away, but have limited ways for runoff, which may produce overland flooding as it does melt. A storm system moving through this weekend will dump more heavy snow on western areas, and strong winds could again create blizzard conditions and stress livestock. That is followed by more cold air going into next week.

DELTA GETTING SOME DRIER WINDOWS

Scattered showers moved over northern areas of the Delta on Wednesday and continue on Thursday. Another system will move through the region this weekend into early next week. While showers will make it difficult to plant at times, a period of drier weather next week should make for some better fieldwork and planting windows.

CENTRAL BRAZIL CORN SUFFERING AS DRY SEASON CONTINUES

The middle of the country has entered the dry season about two weeks early and declining soil moisture well ahead of the start has developing to pollinating corn in a difficult situation. Southern areas have seen better precipitation in April and more showers are expected to move through late this week and again next week, favoring developing to pollinating corn.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO ARGENTINA

Scattered showers are expected to continue in waves across Argentina through next week. Showers at this point in the season will have limited positive effects for corn and soybeans while hampering the ongoing harvest. Wheat areas are more favored as planting gets underway.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

An upper-level system continues to bring beneficial scattered showers to the Black Sea region through the rest of the week, increasing soil moisture for wheat, but making it difficult to plant corn. Another system or two will move at least across Ukraine this weekend into next week with more showers.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick