Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heavy Snow, Severe Weather Continue

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued active weather in the U.S., but not for HRW wheat, and the early end of the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEST

A large system continues to bring widespread showers through the Midwest on Wednesday, including a likely round of severe weather over central and eastern areas. Snow is missing most of the region outside of the far northwest corner. Strong winds with the system will continue to blow, especially across the north Thursday. Another system may bring showers through late Sunday into Tuesday, but the cold temperatures that build in will slow progress for planting through much of next week.

SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT MISSING OUT AGAIN

Scattered showers moved through portions of the eastern Plains on Tuesday. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible Wednesday afternoon across the far southeast. The front to the system will pull back northward on Friday with more showers for the southeast and a system this weekend will bring a brief shot of showers to northern and eastern areas. These systems are missing the drought-stricken southwestern Plains as wheat conditions continue to deteriorate. And colder temperatures settling in behind both systems may cause freeze damage to winter wheat in some areas.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Several waves of showers are expected in the Pacific Northwest through Saturday as a trough remains in the area. That should improve soil moisture for wheat, but cold temperatures will limit growth and could produce multiple days of hard freezes that could cause some damage to wheat and delay spring wheat planting. Additional waves of shower are expected next week as well.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, THEN COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A significant winter storm continues to build heavy snow in North Dakota on Wednesday. The snow will gradually diminish late Wednesday and Thursday. Strong winds continue to produce blizzard conditions that will impact livestock. There will be another system moving through this weekend that could bring more moderate snow. Cold temperatures that occur behind both systems going through next week are unfavorable for any fieldwork or planting and will make snowmelt a very slow process.

MORE SEVERE STORMS IN THE DELTA

Another round of strong to severe storms will move through the Delta on Wednesday, after storms moved through Tuesday. The front to the system will lift back into the region Friday and Saturday with more showers, being picked up by another system on Sunday. Areas over the south that are still in drought will see favorable rainfall, but wetter conditions across the region will continue to make it difficult for planting progress.

DRY SEASON STARTING EARLY FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers will continue to slide northward through Brazil this week, settling into northern areas and out of much of the safrinha corn production area by the weekend. Showers may be the last widespread precipitation event for central Brazil as the region heads into the dry season about two weeks early. Declining soil moisture over the last few weeks is concerning for much of central Brazil. While showers will leave southern areas for about a week, they are likely to return before the end of the month but are unlikely to penetrate farther north.

ARGENTINA DRY AGAIN

Showers over the weekend were somewhat favorable in a few locations of Argentina. But dryness for the next week will not be favorable for the remaining filling corn and soybeans. Winter wheat planting sees favorable conditions, though soil moisture is not ideal.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Scattered showers continue in the Black Sea under an upper-level low for the next couple of days. Another will move in this weekend and last through much of next week as well, increasing soil moisture. This should favor winter wheat but could limit fieldwork for corn.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick