Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active week of weather in the United States, but not for HRW wheat, and the end of the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEST

A large system moving through the Midwest will bring widespread showers, potential for severe storms, and heavy snow to the far northwest through Thursday. Strong winds are also expected with the system, which may include blizzard conditions where heavy snow occurs. More showers are possible this coming weekend as a mix of rain and snow through the region. Low temperatures that occur behind both systems going through next week are unfavorable for any fieldwork or planting.

SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT MISSING OUT AGAIN

A large storm system will bring scattered showers to northern and eastern areas through Wednesday, including a round of severe weather over eastern areas Tuesday, but may completely miss southwestern hard red winter wheat areas. Strong winds could also cause some wind damage and fire hazards. Drought continues to be a major hindrance to winter wheat while also being unfavorable for corn and soybean planting.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Several waves of showers are expected across the Pacific Northwest through the weekend as a trough remains in the area. That should improve soil moisture for wheat, but low temperatures will limit growth and could produce multiple days of hard freezes that could cause some damage to wheat and delay spring wheat planting.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, THEN COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A significant winter storm is starting to spread moderate to heavy rain and snow across the Northern Plains for this week. Montana and North Dakota will see the heaviest snows with totals in the 1- to 2-foot range. Strong winds will develop blizzard conditions that will affect livestock. There will be another system moving through this weekend that could bring more moderate to heavy snow. Low temperatures that occur behind both systems going through next week are unfavorable for any fieldwork or planting.

ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Delta in a few waves through Wednesday, including a couple more rounds of severe weather. Another system will move through this weekend into next week with more showers. Areas that need the rainfall in the south to get out of drought will see some favorable conditions, though it will make it more difficult for planting and early growth on crops.

DRY SEASON STARTING EARLY FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers will slide northward through Brazil this week, settling into northern areas and out of much of the safrinha (second-crop) corn production by the weekend. Showers may be the last go of anything of consequence for central Brazil as the region heads into the dry season about two weeks early. Declining soil moisture during the last few weeks is concerning for much of central Brazil. While showers will leave southern areas for about a week, they are likely to return before the end of the month, but are unlikely to penetrate farther north.

ARGENTINA DRY AGAIN

Showers during the weekend in Argentina were somewhat favorable in a few locations during the weekend. But dryness for the next week will not be favorable for the remaining filling corn and soybeans. Winter wheat planting see favorable conditions, though soil moisture is not ideal.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Scattered showers moved back into Ukraine during the weekend and an upper level-low is forecast to remain in the area for much of the week, bringing periods of showers to the region. This should favor winter wheat, but could limit fieldwork for corn.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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