Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active period of weather in the U.S., but not for HRW wheat, and dryness continuing in central Brazil, are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

MORE PRECIPITATION COMING TO MIDWEST

A system will continue to produce spotty showers over the eastern Midwest through Saturday. Colder air is settling in, which will slow the warming of soils. A large pool of cold air building in the West this weekend will be the cause of some more precipitation next week and will be followed by colder air as well. This is likely to result in rounds of severe weather in some areas, and heavy snow potential in the northwest. Planting and fieldwork delays are also a likely result.

LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

With showers missing most of the Southern Plains this week, drought continues to have a negative impact on developing wheat. A pool of colder air moving into the West this weekend should provide northern and eastern areas with good chances for precipitation next week, but southwestern areas are more likely to be missed.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A large pool of cold air building in the Pacific Northwest this weekend will be the cause of some more beneficial precipitation through next week, though colder temperatures will limit growth for wheat.

HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

For the Northern Plains, a large pool of cold air building in the West this weekend will be the cause of some more beneficial precipitation next week, likely in the form of some heavy snow. This will be accompanied by colder temperatures for several days.

SEVERE STORMS RETURN TO DELTA NEXT WEEK

Moderate precipitation in the Delta this week has helped drought areas in the south, while keeping soils wet across the north. A large pool of cold air building in the West this weekend will be the cause of some more showers and thunderstorms next week, which may be severe and come in a few waves. Continued wetness will delay fieldwork and planting.

DRYNESS CONCERNING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Isolated showers will remain in central Brazil into early next week, but many areas will remain completely dry, drawing soil moisture out when it should be being built up. Safrinha corn is using up available soil moisture, leaving the region more vulnerable if showers do not return before the end of the wet season that occurs later this month. More persistent showers will continue through the next week across the south. These areas have had improving soil moisture conditions for early safrinha corn growth, which is favorable. The showers should move northward into central and northern states toward the end of next week but will become isolated as they do.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible in Argentina through Monday. Rainfall will generally be light and not much help for filling corn and soybeans. That is followed by yet another period of dryness.

LIMITED BLACK SEA SHOWERS

Recent dryness has been building in parts of Ukraine, though some showers have limited negative impacts so far. Though limited, more showers are expected Friday into the middle of next week. Overall, precipitation was above normal in a lot of places over the winter and mostly favorable for early wheat growth. More will be needed in Ukraine before too long, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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