Commodities Market Impact Weather

Feeling Like Spring in the US

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmer air and occasional precipitation with a spring-like feel across the U.S. and more dryness concerns across southern Brazil and Argentina are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

WARM AND WET MIDWEST

Recent precipitation continues to keep soils soggy in the Midwest and is preventing producers from getting into their fields. Temperatures above normal going into next week will awaken more winter wheat out of dormancy and melt northern snowpack. A few weak systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, which will slow drainage of wet soils but drier areas in the northwest could use more.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Above normal temperatures in the Southern Plains should awaken more of the wheat out of dormancy this week, but much of the crop will continue to find fairly dry soils. A disturbance late this week and another early next week bring chances for precipitation, but much more will be needed.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers will continue in the Pacific Northwest as a more active period continues with waves of showers every couple of days or so. Precipitation will help to build additional snowpack, improve soil moisture, and reduce drought prior to spring planting.

MELTING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures above normal in the Northern Plains continue through most of next week. Melting snowpack in the Red River Valley could cause some flooding, but chances for precipitation are low through the weekend, which will not improve drought across the west. There is some potential for better precipitation next week.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers will be focused on central and northern Brazil for the next couple of days. Recent precipitation has improved soil moisture across the south, but drought remains a big concern in these areas. Another system will move through Friday through Sunday across southern areas with more scattered showers and another is forecast for the middle of next week, but overall, below normal precipitation is forecast, including for central and northern areas.

ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Dryness continues to be the theme in Argentina for the next couple of weeks. A system will move through late this week with some spotty showers with another early to mid-next week, but overall amounts and coverage appear to be low. Recent rains may have some benefit to late-planted corn and soybeans, but the dryness that is now forecast will limit those benefits.

BLACK SEA STAYING COLD AND DORMANT

In the Black Sea, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development once temperatures allow. Cold temperatures this week will keep wheat mostly dormant, but warmer temperatures are forecast next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick