Commodities Market Impact Weather

NEW ORLEANS (DTN) -- Drought continuing to expand in HRW wheat areas and the end of a period of favorable showers in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

SOGGY EASTERN MIDWEST CONTINUES

Recent precipitation in the Midwest continues to keep soils soggy and is preventing producers from getting into their fields. Temperatures are falling behind an arctic front, especially in the west, but the cold will be short lived as it spreads farther east over the weekend. More showers are anticipated with this system as well, being moderate to heavy in southeastern areas Friday into early Saturday. Temperatures will rise Sunday and continue above normal next week. A few weak systems could produce some occasional precipitation as well.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO GROW IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Frigid arctic air lingers a couple of more days in the Southern Plains, causing many areas to remain below freezing for more than a 24-hour period. The cold temperatures could cause frost damage to wheat that is not protected by the recent snow. Drought continues to be the main concern this spring. Chances for precipitation next week are low but not zero as a couple of weak systems move through the country.

BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

After a couple of dry days to end this week, more active weather is expected in the Pacific Northwest again starting this weekend and going through next week. The return to a more active pattern may support drought reduction as we get closer to spring planting.

RISING TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will rise above normal in the Northern Plains this weekend, which generally continues next week. Melting snowpack in the Red River Valley could cause some flooding.

SHOWERS SHUTTING DOWN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue for most of Brazil through the weekend, increasing soil moisture for safrinha corn development. Showers will move into central and northern areas over the weekend, returning southern states to dryness. The dryness that is forecast for the second half of March may undo some of the beneficial rainfall over the first half of the month.

A RETURN TO DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA

Recent rains in Argentina may have some benefit to late-planted corn and soybeans, but the period of rainfall is over and dryness is forecast through most of next week. A brief shot at some showers late next week will not be able to keep up with demand.

BLACK SEA STAYING COLD AND DORMANT

In the Black Sea, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development once temperatures allow. Cold temperatures over the next week will keep wheat mostly dormant.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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