Commodities Market Impact Weather

Active Weather Into Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A period of active weather going through the U.S. and more showers in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

TWO STORMS THIS WEEKEND FOR MIDWEST

Soggy soils in the eastern Midwest will be a concern for early planting of corn and soybeans later in March. A strong storm system this weekend and a secondary push early next week will add to the wetness concerns across the east. But precipitation across the Upper Midwest will improve soil moisture, especially in drought areas. A system mid- to late-next week will bring more showers and a blast of arctic air through the region.

SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS WHEAT MISSING OUT

A storm system will move through the Central Plains Saturday with a secondary system a little farther south Sunday into Monday. Scattered mixed precipitation is likely with the systems, but chances for meaningful precipitation across the southwest drought areas continues to be low for winter wheat that is exiting dormancy. Colder temperatures following the systems will continue to be in place through at least the middle of the month, slowing any progress for wheat. Temperatures will drop significantly behind a system in the middle of next week and there may be issues with frost damage to wheat that has come out of dormancy.

MORE SHOWERS COMING TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Waves of showers have moved through the Pacific Northwest this week, which should improve soil moisture. A system to the south will pull showers out of the region this weekend but there may be another system with more significant showers in the middle of next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS TURNING COLDER THIS WEEKEND

Below-normal temperatures are taking over the Northern Plains this weekend and will be followed by an arctic blast in the middle of next week. A system moving across the south this weekend will bring a band of moderate snow to southeastern areas and a system next week could bring heavier precipitation to western drought areas as well.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVING FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Widespread showers are expected for most of Brazil for the next week, including across drought areas in the south. That should improve soil moisture for safrinha corn establishment. Forecasts have mostly increased shower chances across southern areas through mid-March, improving establishment for safrinha corn. Dryness that is forecast for the second half of March may undo some of the beneficial rainfall, however.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A system is forecast to bring widespread showers across Argentina through the weekend with yet another mid- to late-next week. While showers will provide some benefit for corn and soybeans, and be especially timely for some areas, dryness that follows for the rest of March will continue concerns over production.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick