Commodities Market Impact Weather

Officially La Nina Says Australia Bureau of Meteorology

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The worldwide impacts of the official classification of La Nina by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

LIGHT SHOWERS FOR EASTERN MIDWEST

A system went through the Midwest during the weekend with scattered showers across eastern areas. Another system will move through the region on Thursday with scattered showers again for eastern areas. Showers are continuing to cause delays for the remaining harvest and fieldwork.

SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS REMAIN DRY

Dry conditions in the Southern Plains recently have increased drought in the region, a concern for winter wheat, especially in the west. A system will develop along a front on Wednesday and will bring some showers to the region into Thursday, but will be mostly light and focused toward the east. Other fronts moving through are forecast to remain dry and increase drought across the region.

BRIEF SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

A front brought scattered showers to the Delta on Sunday. Another system will bring some more showers on Thursday. Any rainfall will help winter wheat establishment, but could slow the remaining harvest.

SOUTHEAST SEEING GOOD HARVEST WEATHER

A front moved through the Southeast on Monday, but had little shower activity. A front will move through on Friday with possible showers, but mostly favorable harvest conditions are expected to continue.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A system moving through the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday is bringing scattered showers, mostly for the higher elevations though. Some more showers may be possible late in the week as well. Winter wheat continues to deal with drought before going dormant, but time is running out before it does.

BLACK SEA WHEAT UNFAVORABLY DRY

Periods of showers went through the Black Sea region this weekend and Monday. Most areas saw only light rain and dryness continues to be a large concern for winter wheat prior to dormancy, which should occur soon for most areas. Some better showers could move through this weekend into next week, but may be too late to have much of an impact.

SHOWERS BREAKING UP LA NINA PATTERN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dryness over southern Brazil continues for the next few days before a front comes through with scattered showers Thursday and Friday. The drier pattern across the south is concerning as it does not look to relax and get wetter anytime soon. Daily scattered showers continue to promote good growing conditions in the central states.

BRIEF BREAK IN DRIER LA NINA PATTERN FOR ARGENTINA

A system will bring some isolated showers to northern Argentina Tuesday, but a front should produce some more widespread showers Wednesday and Thursday. Another weak front could bring a few showers this weekend, but the overall drier pattern is concerning as only periodic showers along fronts will break it up during the next two weeks.

HEAVY RAIN SLOWING HARVEST IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Wet soils in eastern Australia continue to delay harvest for winter wheat and canola and cause concerns for quality. Another system going through over the next few days will pile on more rainfall. However, after showers move through Thursday and Friday, there should be a somewhat extended period of dryness for most areas before the next system moves in. There is uncertainty with that, however.

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Get a full rundown on the 2022 outlook for weather affecting U.S. and international crop areas during the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 5-7, in Chicago. Visit www.dtn.com/agsummit for more details about the summit and to register. Register before Nov. 26 for the early bird rate.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick