Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern through the United States and a return to more La Nina-type conditions for Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

MORE DELAYS FOR EASTERN MIDWEST

Recent precipitation in the Midwest has been mostly light, but included accumulating snow over the north and also from Indiana into Ohio this weekend. An active pattern will continue this week with a front coming through on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers over eastern areas, and another storm system moving through this weekend with scattered shower potential. Any showers will delay the remaining harvest and fieldwork yet to be done.

SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UNFAVORABLY DRY

Dry conditions in the Southern Plains during the last week have helped the remaining harvest, but continues to be a concern for winter wheat, especially in the west. A couple of fronts will move through during the next week but each of them has low chances for precipitation.

BRIEF SHOWERS COMING TO THE DELTA

A front will move through the Delta with some showers Wednesday night and Thursday with another system possible this weekend. Both would help with winter wheat establishment, but could slow the remaining harvest.

SOUTHEAST SEEING GOOD HARVEST WEATHER

A front will move through the Southeast on Thursday, but is likely to be dry. Mostly favorable harvest conditions are expected to continue.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Some showers moved through the Pacific Northwest on Monday night into Tuesday, but mostly fell in the mountains while the valleys stayed rather dry. Another system will move through later this week, again with impacts mostly for the mountains with lighter showers in the valleys. Winter wheat continues to deal with drought before going dormant.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT

A system moved through the Black Sea region on Monday, but was mostly dry. Another system will move through with a better chance for scattered showers Friday through the weekend, but amounts are forecast to be light. Time is getting very short for showers to have an impact before dormancy, which typically arrives later this month.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL TRENDING DRIER

Scattered showers continue over central Brazil, favoring corn and soybean development. A front is slowly moving through southern areas with needed rainfall through Friday. Dryness after this front comes through should last through the weekend, however, and dryness is starting to take over southern states, typical of La Nina. Another front will quickly move through around the middle of next week with scattered showers. Central areas continue to see daily showers that will benefit corn and soybean development.

DRIER LA NINA PATTERN FOR ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina early this week with scattered showers, putting a cap on two weeks of good rainfall across the country. Dryness will follow behind it for the rest of the week, but there should be another system moving through early next week, maintaining timely showers. If the dry period lasts too long, we could see more stress developing.

WET SOILS IMPACTING HARVEST IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Wet soils in Australia will take some time to drain and allow for harvest to increase for wheat and canola. Another system moving through late this week and weekend will benefit summer crops while causing further delays for harvest.

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Get a full rundown on the 2022 outlook for weather affecting U.S. and international crop areas during the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 5-7, in Chicago. Visit www.dtn.com/agsummit for more details about the summit and to register. Register before Nov. 26 for the early bird rate.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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