DTN Daily Basis Comments

Tuesday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was 1 cent weaker at 15 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 2 cents at $5.37. The national average basis for soybeans was unchanged at 43 cents under the January futures contract and the DTN National Soybean Index was down 16 cents at $11.46. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 2 cents weaker at 19 cents under the December futures contract and the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was unchanged at $7.62. The national average basis for HRS wheat was 5 cents weaker at 44 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 6 cents at $9.65.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $5.37 -$0.02 -$0.15 Dec -$0.005
Soybeans: $11.46 -$0.16 -$0.43 Jan $0.009
SRW Wheat: $7.24 $0.02 -$0.44 Dec $0.002
HRW Wheat: $7.62 $0.00 -$0.19 Dec -$0.024
HRS Wheat: $9.65 -$0.06 -$0.44 Dec -$0.050

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Monday is 15 cents under the December futures, 1 cent weaker than Friday's basis. December corn closed down 1 1/2 cents at $5.51 1/2 Monday, under pressure once again from the lower soybean market despite a fresh export sale announced of 5.9 million bushels (mb) (150,000 mt) of corn sold to Colombia for 2021-22. Ahead of Tuesday's WASDE report, Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects a small reduction in USDA's estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks, to 1.482 billion bushels (bb). Weekly corn inspections for the week ended Nov. 4 showed total inspections in 2021-22 are now down 21% from the previous year. The U.S. corn harvest is likely near the finish line thanks to good weather the past week and end users, mainly ethanol plants, continue to post decent prices to keep plants running strong amid the good margins they are experiencing. Track PNW shuttle basis was steady for November, while track St. Louis was 7 cents stronger for first half November. The BNSF secondary shuttle freight remains high with first half November bid at $500 per car over tariff against offers of $800 over and mid-period November is bid at $400 versus offers of $700 over. Ethanol plant basis is mixed with west-central Illinois and southwest Iowa 2 cents weaker, north-central Nebraska 5 cents stronger, northeastern Kansas 3 cents stronger and central Illinois 2 cents stronger.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Monday is at 43 cents under the January futures, unchanged from Friday's basis. January soybeans closed down 17 cents Monday, reaching its lowest close in seven months as the market looks ahead to the Tuesday WASDE report. A Dow Jones survey pointed to the possibility USDA will increase their estimate of soybeans stocks from 320 mb to 360 mb, depending on their export forecast. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty as to how much the rain-soaked eastern Midwest U.S. soybeans were affected as far as yield and quality. For the week ended Nov. 4 showed total inspections in 2021-22 are down 31% from the previous year and so far are well below the USDA current estimate. The track PNW shuttle basis was 5 cents weaker for first-half November, while track St. Louis for first-half November was 3 cents stronger. Barge freight bids have perked up for spot barges on the Ohio, Illinois and mid-Mississippi River and at St. Louis. The good weather over the weekend gave a boost to soybean harvest, sending beans to the river and barge lines report good unloading at the Gulf. Basis on the river was a mixed bag again Monday, while processor basis is firm.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT

The national average SRW wheat basis for Monday is at 44 cents under the December futures, unchanged from Friday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Monday is at 19 cents under the Kansas City December futures, 2 cents weaker than Friday's basis. KC December futures closed up 2 cents with not much news on the day. Weekly export inspections were better than what the trade expected, but total inspections are down 15% from the previous year. The spot KC milling premiums for ordinary protein was up 8 cents and 11% protein was up 5 cents as mills need blending material to blend down the higher protein.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Monday is at 44 cents under the Minneapolis December futures, 5 cents weaker than Friday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis December futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were not quoted, 13.5% proteins were not quoted, 14% proteins were unchanged at +85N to +125N; 14.5% proteins were unchanged at +85N, 15% proteins were down 50 cents to unchanged +95* to +145 and 16 proteins were not quoted. Receipts were 28 cars, which included one train(s).* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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