Commodities Market Impact Weather

Temperatures Moderating Through Weekend

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Colder weather moderating through the United States, the end of a good rainfall pattern in Argentina, and wet conditions for wheat harvest in eastern Australia are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

LOWER TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN MIDWEST

Cold air settling into the Midwest will slow soil drainage with some frosts and freezes for the next few mornings. The cold will also slow growth on winter wheat. Temperatures will rise through the weekend, however. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Moderate precipitation could cause more delays in the harvest should it occur.

MILD AND DRY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front brought at least some showers to the Southern Plains during the last few days, but dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment, especially in West Texas. Dryness and above-normal temperatures during the next several days will be detrimental. A system in the middle of next week could bring some showers, but mostly to eastern areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS WARMING UP

Temperatures will be on a warming trend for the Northern Plains through the weekend. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Seemingly everything is on the table in terms of precipitation and temperatures, but the most likely scenario is for moderate precipitation to move through with falling temperatures and a turn to snow, which could affect the remaining corn harvest.

DRY AND COOL IN DELTA

Scattered showers that moved through the Delta this week should not have affected harvest very much. Cooler weather should slow growth on winter wheat through the weekend before temperatures rise.

HARVEST DELAYS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST

Scattered showers will move through the Southeast during the next couple of days and could affect cotton harvest. Lower temperatures will follow the system going into next week.

WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Drought remains a large concern for winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest. A trough off the coast will bring in a few waves of showers during the next week, which may be helpful for a few areas where moisture piles up a bit. But more moisture is needed throughout the rest of the fall and winter.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A couple of weak systems will bring some showers mostly to Ukraine for the next week, while Russia stays fairly dry. There continues to be dryness concerns for winter wheat establishment in these drier areas and time is running out for beneficial moisture before dormancy.

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS BRAZIL

Daily scattered showers will continue across central Brazil for the next week, while a couple of rounds of showers are expected across southern areas as well. Overall, conditions are favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting and early growth. Some dry periods will favor winter wheat harvest over the south as well.

RUN OF GOOD RAIN ENDING FOR ARGENTINA

A front will move through Argentina with scattered showers for the next couple of days. That will favor corn and soybean planting as well as immature winter wheat. Drier conditions are expected during the weekend, but some isolated showers may pop back up next week, especially over western areas.

WET HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system is bringing widespread showers to the Australian wheat belt this week, benefiting immature wheat and canola, and developing cotton and sorghum. But showers are also causing harvest delays and possible quality issues. A couple more fronts will bring isolated to scattered showers to the wheat belt through next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick