Commodities Market Impact Weather

Strong System Enters Plains Tuesday

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong system moving across the United States, along with the continued La Nina pattern in South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

ANOTHER STRONG MIDWEST STORM

Scattered showers developed across the southern two-thirds of the Midwest this weekend, were moderate to heavy in spots, and included some severe weather on Sunday, all of which should cause some harvest delays. Another system is winding up to produce more delays for Wednesday through Saturday with more widespread showers across the region.

SEVERE STORMS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers developed over eastern areas of the Southern Plains this weekend as a system developed. Another system will push through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with more scattered showers which could be severe. These showers are looking to mostly miss western winter wheat areas that did not get much precipitation out of the last couple of systems. Modeled soil moisture is still adequate in some of these areas, but lacking in others, which could hurt winter wheat establishment if this week's rains are not substantial.

SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains during the weekend, but were mostly light with only some localized moderate amounts. A system should bring more widespread showers through the region Tuesday and Wednesday which could have more of an impact on harvest. Dry weather should follow, however, and some low temperatures will make their way in this weekend.

SHOWERS COMING BACK TO THE DELTA

A few showers moved through the Delta on Sunday night into Monday, mostly across northern areas. A system will move through with scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday that should bring moderate amounts and some risk for harvest delays.

THURSDAY SOUTHEAST RAIN

A front brought a few showers through the Southeast on Monday. Another system will move through Thursday with more widespread and heavy showers that could cause more of a delay to harvest.

RAIN DIMINISHING FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A system that just moved through the Pacific Northwest brought some moderate rainfall to spots. Waves of showers will continue through the week as a system offshore continues to bring in moisture from the Pacific, but the focus could turn farther north later this week before drying out this weekend. Overall, showers are beneficial for winter wheat establishment and drought reduction in the area.

BLACK SEA REGION STAYING DRY

Some isolated showers moved through Ukraine and western Russia with a front this weekend, but amounts were light and of very little help for winter wheat establishment. Low temperatures through Tuesday morning have not been helpful either. Dry weather looks to be in place for the next week and winter wheat is starting to run out of time before lower temperatures settle in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

DAILY RAINS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A system brought scattered showers through most of Brazil during the weekend, continuing to produce beneficial conditions for everything but winter wheat harvest. The front to the system will stall in central areas and continue the showers for the next week while it will be dry across the south. Winter wheat harvest should find better conditions while there is still plenty of soil moisture for early plant growth. Isolated showers will move back into southern areas this weekend.

DRYNESS STILL CONCERNING ARGENTINA

Scattered showers moved through Argentina during the weekend and were more widespread than forecast. While the showers will be a short-term benefit to corn and soybean planting and establishment and also reproductive to filling wheat, dry conditions will continue through Thursday. Isolated showers will start popping back up in the area Friday and continue into next week. The spotty nature of the showers will leave some areas dry while benefiting others.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick