Commodities Market Impact Weather

Two Storm Systems Monday

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Rain across the West and Eastern Corn Belt, along with the continued La Nina pattern in South America, are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

TWO MIDWEST STORMS

Scattered showers developed across the southern two-thirds of the Midwest this weekend, were moderate to heavy in spots, and included some severe weather on Sunday. All of which should cause some delays for harvest. Another system is winding up to produce more delays for mid-late week with more widespread showers across the region that could cause further delays.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers developed over eastern areas of the Southern Plains this weekend as a system developed. Another system will push through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with more scattered showers. These showers are looking to mostly miss western winter wheat areas that did not get much precipitation out of the last couple of systems. Modeled soil moisture is still adequate in some of these areas, but lacking in others, which could hurt winter wheat establishment if this week's rains are not substantial.

SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains during the weekend, but were mostly light with only some localized moderate amounts. A system should bring more widespread showers through the region Tuesday and Wednesday which could be a little more impactful for harvest. Dry weather should follow, however, and some low temperatures could make their way in this weekend.

SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE DELTA

A few showers moved through the Delta on Sunday night, mostly across northern areas. A system will move through with scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday that should bring moderate amounts and some risk for harvest delays.

MIDWEEK SOUTHEAST RAIN

Dry weather occurred over the Southeast this weekend. A front will bring some isolated showers through early this week. Another system will move through mid-late this week with more widespread and heavy showers that could cause more of a harvest delay.

RAIN DIMINISHING FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers moved through during the weekend, being moderate in a few spots. Waves of showers will continue through the week as a system offshore continues to bring in moisture from the Pacific. The focus could turn farther north later this week before drying out this weekend. Overall, showers are beneficial for winter wheat establishment and drought reduction in the area.

BLACK SEA WHEAT STILL NEEDS MORE RAIN

Some isolated showers moved through Ukraine and western Russia with a front this weekend, but amounts were light and of little help for winter wheat establishment. Low temperatures through Tuesday morning will not be helpful either. Dry weather looks to be in place for the next week and winter wheat is starting to run out of time before colder conditions settle in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

CENTRAL BRAZIL RAINS CONTINUING

A system brought scattered showers through most of Brazil during the weekend, continuing to produce beneficial conditions for everything but winter wheat harvest. The front to the system will stall in central areas and continue the showers for the next week while it will be dry across the south. Winter wheat harvest should find better conditions during the next few days while there is still plenty of soil moisture for early plant growth.

DRYNESS STILL CONCERNING ARGENTINA

Scattered showers moved through Argentina during the weekend and were more widespread than forecast. While the showers will be a short-term benefit to corn and soybean planting and establishment, and also reproductive to filling wheat, this week looks very dry with just a chance for a few isolated showers over western areas late this week and weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick