Commodities Market Impact Weather

Large Storm Brewing Tuesday

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong storm system with myriad impacts to the United States and rainfall patterns in South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Midwest on Monday and continues over northern areas on Tuesday. Another strong system will bring more rain to western areas Wednesday while it weakens as the front moves to the Ohio River on Thursday and stalls. A system will move along the front Friday and Saturday, sweeping the front out of the region. All systems have the potential for localized heavy rain, delaying harvest progress.

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Southern Plains Sunday into Monday with severe storms and moderate rainfall. Another system will start to affect the region on Tuesday and more severe weather will be possible as a cold front moves across the region. The front will get stuck across southeastern areas for a bit before getting pushed eastward on Friday. Moderate to heavy rain and severe weather will hinder harvest progress while the rainfall would be good for winter wheat outside of any potential flooding.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND COOLNESS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A strong system will bring more widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the Dakotas with snow expected in southern Montana and Wyoming and possibly the western Dakotas as well through early Thursday. Strong winds will also be a hazard with this system. Lower temperatures will only stick around for a couple of days before warmer weather comes back into the region during the weekend.

A FEW DELTA SHOWERS

A system brought some showers to the Delta on Monday and another front will bring showers on Friday. Rain may delay harvest for cotton and soybeans but provide good moisture for winter wheat establishment.

SOUTHEAST STAYING DRY

Dry weather came back into the Southeast during the weekend, helping to dry soils and crops that became waterlogged last week. Dry weather is expected through the week with some showers being possible this weekend.

WESTERN BLACK SEA SHOWERS

Dry and cool conditions continued across the Black Sea region through the weekend. This favors fall harvest but is stressing drier sections of both Ukraine and western Russia for winter grain establishment. A system in the Mediterranean moves through Ukraine Tuesday and Wednesday, but western Russia does not have a good chance for showers here and time is running out before lower temperatures settle in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

GOOD RAINFALL FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers that continue in Brazil this week, being heavy in some spots, are overall good for full-season corn and soybean planting and establishment. Some drier weather would actually be favorable for maturing and harvest of winter wheat.

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Some isolated showers moved through Argentina during the weekend, but there remains some rather dry spots in portions of the country that could use more moisture for corn and soybean planting. Winter wheat areas are still doing alright but with soil moisture drying up, more moisture is needed overall across the country. A system will quickly move through the country in the middle of the week with scattered showers while another follows a day or so later. The rainfall is unlikely to be enough and more will be needed. But drier weather looks to take hold during the weekend and continue into next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick