Commodities Market Impact Weather

Strong Storms for North-Central US

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

GRAND ISLAND, Neb. (DTN) -- An active pattern with potential for heavy rain next week across the Corn Belt, heavy rainfall in Louisiana and a stalled front in southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

WATCHING A STORM FOR THE MIDWEST

Isolated to occasionally scattered showers will continue over the Midwest for the next 10 days as a few systems move through, while temperatures will continue to be above normal. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest. A system early- to mid-next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but that is not certain yet. Soil moisture is still favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment.

HOT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers will be possible over the Southern Plains through the weekend, but most areas should stay dry while temperatures remain above normal. A system early next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but that is not certain yet. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and harvest and deplete soil moisture for winter wheat establishment unless the heavier showers materialize.

STORM POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Several systems will move through the Northern Plains over the next week, but showers look to be isolated for the most part. Showers early next week may be on the heavier side, but that is not certain yet. This should mostly favor maturing crops and early harvest unless the heavy rain does indeed occur.

ISOLATED DELTA SHOWERS

Nicholas and its remnants brought some heavier rains to the southern end of the Delta this week, which may have caused damage to maturing cotton and soybeans. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible through the next week.

SOUTHEAST RAINS CONTINUING

Nicholas and its remnants will continue to spread moderate showers across the region for the next few days, which may negatively impact maturing cotton. Otherwise, isolated showers over the next week will be possible.

SHOWERS COMING BACK TO THE BLACK SEA

Dry weather this week in the Black Sea has favored maturing and harvest of summer crops, but the region could use more moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. This is especially true across Russia, where it has been overly dry this summer. Some showers will move through over the weekend and into next week which could help with that.

HEAVY SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAINFALL

Southern Brazil will stay active into next week as a front remains stalled. This will favor winter wheat and recharge soil moisture for corn and soybeans. Central states are still awaiting the start of the wet season which looks to be delayed. Soybean planting restrictions lift this week but will need more moisture for seed-to-soil contact in these central areas before planting picks up. Models are suggesting it to stay relatively dry through the end of September with only isolated showers in Mato Grosso at times.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Dry conditions are expected in Argentina for the next week with only some isolated showers early next week. Winter wheat has gotten some moisture lately but could use more as it gets further into reproduction. More moisture is needed for corn and soybean planting as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick