Commodities Market Impact Weather

Ida Bringing Flooding Rains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain from Ida and its remnants, an active Corn Belt, and potential rainfall across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

MIDWEST REMAINING ACTIVE

Scattered showers fell across the Midwest during the weekend, with the heaviest rain along the Minnesota-Iowa border through Michigan. Some areas of flooding occurred here as well. A front will continue to push through the region through Wednesday and the remnants to Ida may interact with it along the Ohio River, which may cause some heavy rainfall there. More systems will pass through over the following week as the pattern continues to remain active. There will be some late benefit for filling corn and soybeans and drought reduction, but too much rainfall could start to affect harvest.

MIXED CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers fell across Nebraska and central Kansas this weekend. Nebraska may stay active this week as a couple of systems pass by off to the north. Southern winter wheat areas need more moisture to start planting. Some showers could develop through the week, but will be isolated with temperatures well into the 90s Fahrenheit.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers have been crossing the Northern Plains during the last week. Despite some good rainfall, drought has been firm, a testament to its depth. Severe weather has also been a concern with the showers. The region will stay active this week as a couple of systems pass through again. There may be only some minor benefits to filling corn and soybeans in the region, but the showers should help to reduce at least some of the drought.

IDA CAUSING SOME DELTA FLOODING

Isolated showers fell across the Delta on Saturday but bands of rain from Ida were moving into southern areas on Sunday and Monday. Ida will move up through the southern half of the region through Monday night before turning eastward and away. Heavy rainfall of 3-6 inches will be possible and could cause a risk for flood damage to maturing cotton and soybeans. After Ida passes east, the region should be drier, helping soils to recover.

BANDS FROM IDA POUNDING SOUTHEAST

Scattered showers fell across the Southeast during the weekend and bands from Ida were moving through southwest Alabama on Sunday and Monday. Ida will pass by to the west and north, with the main storm track producing only moderate rainfall for most areas this week. Alabama could see more significant rainfall. There is a risk of tornadoes, as well.

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA

Some isolated showers moved through the Black Sea during the weekend, but mostly over Ukraine, keeping Russia unfavorably dry and hot. There is a stark difference in conditions across the region, being much better in Ukraine than Russia. A system will be slow to move through the region this week, bringing more rainfall to Ukraine than Russia. With more of this year's crop reaching maturity, drier weather would be preferred. Though showers are needed in Russia for next year's winter wheat planting.

HELPFUL SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAINFALL

A front produced showers across Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Sao Paulo Brazil this weekend, being favorable for developing to reproductive winter wheat and recharging some soil moisture for spring planting which starts in the next two weeks. Another front will come through late this week and weekend with more showers, and at least the southern portions of the region could remain active into next week.

ARGENTINA HOPING FOR RAIN

Argentina was dry during the weekend and most areas have below normal soil moisture. Temperatures will be above normal this week, accelerating wheat development and showers will be needed. A system will bring scattered showers through the region this week, but may not be widespread and more will be needed.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick