DTN Daily Basis Comments

DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 74 cents over the September futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 7 cents at $6.39. The national average basis for soybeans was unchanged at 39 cents over the November futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was down 28 cents at $14.02. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent stronger at 18 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 14 cents at $6.35. The national average basis for HRS wheat was 1 cent stronger at 22 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was up 6 cents at $8.82.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$6.39	-$0.07	$0.74	Sep	-$0.001
Soybeans:	$14.02	-$0.28	$0.39	Nov	-$0.001
SRW Wheat:	$6.52	-$0.17	-$0.40	Sep	$0.014
HRW Wheat:	$6.35	-$0.14	-$0.18	Sep	$0.007
HRS Wheat:	$8.82	$0.06	-$0.22	Sep	$0.002

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Thursday is at 74 cents over the September futures unchanged from Wednesday's basis. The September and December corn markets closed down 7 1/4 cents, finding some pressure from the weekly export sales and shipment report showing a cancellation of 3.5 million bushels of corn export sales and an increase of 1.9 mb for 2021-22. Last week's export shipments what is needed each week to achieve USDA's current export estimate in 2020-21, while commitments on this crop year are up 60% versus one year ago. The market acted like there was rain in the forecast everywhere, but precipitation is expected to be limited in the western Midwest and north into the Dakotas and western Minnesota. As the crop is in a sensitive stage of development, it won't fare well in the hot dry areas without at least a few drinks of water. The July CIF NOLA basis was 15 cents stronger as the demand is increasing for loaded corn barges at the Gulf. The strength in the basis for July versus August now has farmers hauling old crop to market and elevators loading out barges to fill the demand at the Gulf. The weekly USDA Grain Transportation report noted that since July and through this week, 47 vessels are expected to be loaded at the Gulf, 34% more than the same period last year.

SOYBEAN:

The national average soybean basis for Thursday is at 39 cents over the November futures, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. November soybeans closed down 27 1/2 cents Thursday as the uncertainty over what will happen with the Renewable Fuel Standard continues to pressure soybeans and soy oil, which was down 0.69 cent. The market reacted to the weather forecasts the same way corn did, with expectations that the current precipitation forecasts will come to fruition. Weekly export sales and shipments showed for the week ending July 15 an increase of sales 2020-21 and 2021-22. However, weekly shipments were below what is needed each week to achieve USDA's export estimate in 2020-21, while export commitments are up 34% from a year ago. The CIF NOLA basis for July was 7 cents weaker, while August was 3 cents weaker and river basis was weaker as well. Processor basis was lower in many plants for July with southeast Nebraska, northeast South Dakota, east central Iowa and southern Minnesota 20 cents weaker, southwest Iowa 15 cents weaker, and central Illinois 8 cents weaker. Remember that for the past few weeks we were seeing spot prices much higher than bids for August.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 40 cents under the September futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 18 cents under the Kansas City September futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis. The KC September finally ran out of gas, closing down 15 cents Thursday. The weakness in the corn market added pressure and the lack of any fresh news did as well. Basis is feeling weaker as elevators and mills are full for now. There has been plenty of old and new crop wheat moving to market since harvest as prices remained strong, especially for good protein.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Thursday is at 22 cents under the Minneapolis September futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis September futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were not quoted, 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +120N, 14% proteins were up 10 cents to down 20 cents at +125 to +150; 14.5% proteins were unchanged to down 10 cents at +105N to +125 and 15% proteins were unchanged to down 5 cents at +155N to +170. Receipts were 8 cars, which included zero train(s).* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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