Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Hot and relatively dry conditions across the Corn Belt, and the end of frosts in southern Brazil, are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

WESTERN MIDWEST HEAT INCREASING

A frontal boundary will slide south from Canada into northern sections of the Midwest this week, producing some isolated showers. Another front will move through the region with more scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal for northwestern areas that will continue to be drier as well, stressing developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Conditions continue to be much better across the southeast where drier conditions will allow more saturated soils to drain.

FAVORABLE HARVEST CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Drier conditions are expected in the Southern Plains for the rest of this week, but temperatures should remain on the mild side until Friday when temperatures will go on a warming trend. Overall, conditions will be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest and developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. But if rain does not come with the heat, we could see stress developing for corn and soybeans.

HEAT CONTINUING IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers may develop in the Northern Plains this week, but most areas are likely to remain dry as triple-digit heat becomes fairly widespread. Stress continues to mount for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans, and has taken a massive toll on spring wheat. A front may bring some scattered showers on Friday, but the heat will continue through the end of July.

OCCASIONAL DELTA SHOWERS

Scattered showers moved into the Delta with a front this weekend, and were heavy across portions of Arkansas and Mississippi, where flooding was a concern last month. Otherwise, scattered showers will remain in the region through the week, being mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

In the Southeast, daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES DRYNESS

Some isolated showers moved across the Canadian Prairies this weekend, but were focused across the north. If not for low clouds and wildfire smoke, temperatures above normal would hurt reproductive wheat and canola, but the drought continues to have a negative impact. Limited showers and temperatures above normal will continue to stress reproductive to filling wheat and canola for the next week.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL FROSTS ENDING

Scattered showers moved through southern Brazil during the weekend, helping vegetative wheat. But temperatures fell harshly as a front moved through. Some limited frost was noted across Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, harming remaining filling corn. Temperatures will go on a rising trend for the end of the week. Dry weather this week will not be favorable for crops.

BLACK SEA CATCHING A BREAK

Recent hot weather in Ukraine and western Russia are being pushed aside as a frontal boundary works slowly across the region. The front is bringing scattered showers, which will help to improve soil moisture after the heatwave. Even with the heat during the last week, most areas have had enough soil moisture to get by except for the Volga Valley region of Russia. Dryness here may have had some negative impacts to wheat and corn. Dryness follows the system however, and more showers would be welcome for those areas that get missed this week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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