DTN Daily Basis Comments

Monday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 79 cents over the September futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 7 cents at $6.08. The national average basis for soybeans was 4 cents stronger at 42 cents over the November futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 14 cents at $13.71. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 3 cents stronger at 21 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was up 9 cents at $5.73. The national average basis for HRS wheat was 11 cents stronger at 30 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was up 20 cents at $7.84. Note: The changes in spring and HRW wheat basis are adjustments made from a recent technical issue.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $6.08 -$0.07 $0.79 Sep -$0.001
Soybeans: $13.71 $0.14 $0.42 Nov $0.039
SRW Wheat: $5.82 -$0.04 -$0.33 Sep -$0.005
HRW Wheat: $5.73 $0.09 -$0.21 Sep $0.031
HRS Wheat: $7.84 $0.20 -$0.30 Sep $0.105

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Friday is at 79 cents over the September futures 1 cent weaker than Thursday's basis. The September corn market closed down 7 1/4 cents, and December was down 6 3/4 cents, completing the losing streak for the week as rain forecasts into the weekend continue to pressure the market. For the week, September corn was down 62 1/2 cents, and December corn was down 62 3/4 cents. While the cheaper cash price is good for ethanol plant margins, the flip side is that the DDG market continues lower because of oversupply in a weak demand market. However, corn demand is still strong at plants as cash ethanol demand is still strong, with cash prices higher earlier this week. The corn basis seems to have settled down once everyone moved over to the September and adjusted the steep inverse over the week. Ethanol plants continue to support the basis to keep old-crop corn coming to the plant. There is nothing going on as far as fresh exports nearby and the current vessel lineup on the Pacific Northwest shows about 10 corn vessels being loaded out from previous commitments.

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SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Friday is at 42 cents over the November futures, 4 cents stronger than Thursday's basis. August soybeans closed up 14 cents and November soybeans closed up 9 3/4 Friday as some areas may receive too much rain over the weekend. For the week, August soybeans closed down 54 cents and November soybeans were down 69 3/4 cents. Strength in soybean oil, up 1.87 cents, also was supportive to soybeans. Soybean oil had a good day Friday in spite of weaker energy markets, as it focused on some of the dry growing areas in the U.S. that are expecting heat to return in the coming week. Basis has been stronger for the week and gained 14 cents versus one week ago. Processors continue to be the market movers for basis as export business is flat.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Friday is at 33 cents under the September futures, 1 cent weaker than Thursday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Friday is at 21 cents under the Kansas City September futures, 3 cents stronger than Thursday's basis. The KC September closed up 6 1/2 cents and for the week, closed down 25 1/4 cents. New crop basis remains firm at elevators, and usual twist during harvest, but the feed market is keeping the demand strong. New-crop protein seems to be getting a little better and closer to 11%, but as we see harvest head into the drought areas, we will see high protein and low test weight, which is not a good combination, especially for mills.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Friday is at 30 cents under the Minneapolis September futures, 11 cents stronger than Thursday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis September futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were unchanged at +130N, 13.5% proteins were at +115, 14% proteins were up 25 cents at +155; 14.5% proteins were up 15 cents to down 5 cents at +130 to 135 and 15% proteins were unchanged to up 5 cents at +140N to +170. Receipts were 14 cars, which included zero train(s).* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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