Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stalled front that continues to produce widespread heavy rainfall in the Midwest and frosts in southern Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Tuesday.

CONTINUED HEAVY MIDWEST RAIN

A couple of strips of moderate to heavy rain fell across the Midwest this weekend as a frontal boundary stalled from northern Missouri to lower Michigan. Most areas saw at least some rainfall, helping to ease drought conditions across a wide area. Minnesota saw some decent rainfall across southern zones, but most of the state missed out on beneficial rainfall. This front should continue to barely move over the next two days before it is finally pushed southward late this week. Behind the front, scattered showers will dry up after Tuesday for the following week or so, with dryness causing concern for areas that have been missed by showers.

SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING RAINS

Showers were fairly scattered across the Southern Plains since last week, though there has been a solid zone of heavy rainfall from northern Texas through eastern Kansas along a stalled front where amounts eclipsed 2" and disrupted the winter wheat harvest and caused flooding. This same zone is expected to produce more showers over the next couple of days before the stalled front finally pushes south Thursday through the weekend. Texas may continue to see showers through the weekend.

HOT AND DRY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the last several days, but amounts have been generally less than 1/2 inch for most with only localized areas seeing more. Crop conditions have stabilized, but conditions have not improved. Dry conditions are expected over the next week and will continue to stress developing crops.

SCATTERED DELTA SHOWERS

The Delta has been relatively dry over the last week as a front stalled well enough to the north. The front will eventually push through the region late this week and weekend. Some areas are happy for the dryness as they continue to recover from flooding and possible replanting. But the showers will help developing cotton and soybeans later this week.

DAILY SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST

Tropical Storm Danny was brief, but brought some better showers to the coastal Southeast on Monday. The remnant low will continue west and die out but with good showers for the next day. Other showers will continue through the rest of the week and will be focused as a front moves into the region late this week and weekend. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton.

HOT AND DRY IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some isolated showers have moved through the Canadian Prairies since last week, but were very isolated and light. Eastern areas have seen better coverage and amounts while southwestern areas have seen very little and these areas need more rainfall. Hot temperatures are spreading through the region. Very little rainfall is forecast over the next week as soil moisture continues to decrease for most areas.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL FROSTS

Dryness continues to plague corn across Brazil. Temperatures behind a front that passed through have plummeted with frosts across Parana corn fields through July 1. Frosts will only continue to harm immature corn -- if the drought has not been enough already. Wheat areas will be more resilient to the winter fluctuations and conditions are much better for the vegetative crop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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