Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stalled front producing showers across the Corn Belt and dryness concerns in the Canadian Prairies are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Monday.

STALLED FRONT PRODUCING RAIN IN MIDWEST

A couple of strips of moderate to heavy rain fell across the Midwest this weekend as a frontal boundary stalled from northern Missouri to lower Michigan. Most areas saw at least some rainfall, easing drought conditions across a wide area. Minnesota saw some decent rainfall across southern zones, but most of the state missed out on beneficial rainfall. This front should continue to barely move over the next several days before it is finally pushed southward late this week. Behind the front, scattered showers will continue through Tuesday but be spotty and mostly light.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SEEING WIDESPREAD RAIN

Showers were fairly scattered across the Southern Plains over the weekend, though there was a solid zone of heavy rainfall from northern Texas through eastern Kansas along a stalling front where amounts eclipsed 2 inches, disrupted winter wheat harvest and caused flooding. This same zone is expected to produce more showers through much of the week before the stalled front finally pushes south late Thursday through the weekend. Texas may continue to see showers through the weekend.

LITTLE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but amounts were generally less than 1/2 inch for most; only localized areas saw more. Crop conditions may have stabilized a little with the periods of showers since late last week, but conditions have not improved. Dryness after Monday will likely send conditions downward again.

SCATTERED DELTA SHOWERS

The Delta stayed relatively dry this weekend as a front stalled well enough to the north. The front will eventually push through the region late this week and weekend. Some areas are happy for the dryness as they continue to recover from flooding and possible replanting. But the showers will help developing cotton and soybeans later this week.

DAILY SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST

Showers were fairly isolated this weekend. There is a potential tropical low east of the Georgia coast that is moving toward the region. This may become tropical before landfall but should be moving relatively quickly. Rainfall could be a bit more widespread as it moves east to west Monday and Tuesday. A front will settle into the region later this week with more widespread showers as well. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton.

DRIER IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some showers moved through the Canadian Prairies this weekend but were relatively isolated. Eastern areas saw better coverage and amounts while southwestern areas -- areas that need more rainfall -- saw little. Very little rainfall is forecast over the next week as soil moisture continues to decrease for most areas.

FROSTY SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front brought moderate to heavy rain into Rio Grande do Sul this weekend, but most other areas were dry. The front will move northward, but the showers are quickly dissipating with little shower activity farther north than Parana. Temperatures behind the front will plummet with potential frosts across Parana cornfields through July 1. Frosts would only harm immature corn if the drought has not done enough already. Wheat areas will be more resilient to the winter fluctuations and conditions are much better for the vegetative crop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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