Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The location of showers and thunderstorms moving through Corn Belt into next week and an intense heatwave in the Black Sea region are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Friday.

SCATTERED SEVERE MIDWEST STORMS

Scattered thunderstorms moved through some of the northern drought areas of the Midwest Thursday night into Friday morning, with some good rainfall in a few stripes across Wisconsin and Michigan. A batch of moderate rainfall this morning will continue to move southeast through the day, but estimates for total rainfall are up to 1 inch when the area needs much more. The front causing the showers will sag southeastward Friday and Saturday, with more stripes of beneficial showers each day, mostly across eastern states. A system will move through Sunday into early next week with more widespread rainfall, but comes with clusters of thunderstorms, which may miss some key areas. The faster movement of the system will make it difficult for rain to pile up for most areas with mostly moderate amounts expected. This will ease some of the drought for some areas, but will not be enough to break it. Temperatures will fall below normal for the following several days next week, helping to ease stress across the drought areas. Another system may bring more showers late next week.

DRYING SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, recent showers have been very isolated and soil moisture has been drying up over the last week or two. This has promoted favorable conditions for wheat harvest but worsening conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Isolated showers will remain possible over the next couple of days with a better chance as a system moves through this weekend into early next week with a strong cold front. It should provide some beneficial moisture to a few areas along with below-normal temperatures for a few days.

HEAT DEPARTING NORTHERN PLAINS

Hot weather and nearly no rainfall have worsened drought for much of the Northern Plains this week. A system moving across the area this weekend will produce scattered showers, but amounts will likely be light to locally moderate and drought will not be reduced. Temperatures will fall below normal, which should help with the stress, but crops are in dire need of moisture through most of the region. We may see another system late next week, but amounts look light again.

DELTA MISSED BY TROPICAL STORM

Outside of the draining soils from last week's flooding, conditions are favorable for developing soybeans and cotton in the Delta. A tropical system is forecast to miss the region this weekend but a frontal boundary is likely to bring rain early next week. It may stall across southern areas with more rain chances through next week.

TROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST

Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton in the Southeast. A tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move through the region Saturday into Monday with heavy rainfall along its path. This could cause localized flooding.

COLD IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent rainfall in the Canadian Prairies has been highly beneficial for developing crops, except places that received too much and caused some flooding. More scattered showers are expected with a system this weekend, but temperatures will fall below normal and a couple of frosty mornings may be possible over eastern areas early next week. Another system will bring scattered showers to the area late next week.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAINFALL

Central areas of Brazil remain dry, suppressing yield prospects for safrinha corn. A system is expected to affect southern states yet again Friday and Saturday with scattered showers but will not make it into central states. Another system will follow in a similar fashion early next week.

BLACK SEA HEATWAVE

An upper-level low that has produced widespread showers across Ukraine and Russia over the last seven to 10 days will move southwest into the Balkans this weekend. It will be replaced by hot high pressure through much of next week, especially in western Russia. The heat may be quite significant with triple digit readings possible in southern Russia. Heat will reduce topsoil moisture but hasten developing corn and spring wheat, and aid maturing winter wheat.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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