Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat will expand across the northern tier of the U.S. and Canadian Prairies with near-record temperatures Wednesday, exacerbating the drought. An upper level low pressure system will provide more widespread showers next week, however.

MIXED CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST

A system moving along the Ohio River will bring some scattered showers to the southern and eastern Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Drier areas across the northern Midwest will see only limited chances. An upper-level low moving through next week could bring more widespread showers back into the region, especially across the western half. Temperatures will be rising through much of the week, accelerating growing progress. In the absence of showers across the north, near-record highs could stress vulnerable crops.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAINS

In the Southern Plains, periods of more isolated showers are expected through the end of the week, but an upper-level low moving into the region this weekend could bring more widespread showers to the region into next week. This looks more likely over the eastern half of the region. Temperatures remain below normal through much of this week, keeping growth a little slower than normal for corn and soybeans. Temperatures should rise next week.

HEAT BAKING NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, dryness is likely to continue through a good portion of this week. Showers may return with a system moving through this coming weekend but will be more likely next week as an upper-level system meanders into the region. Ahead of the system, temperatures will approach triple digits and record highs. This will exacerbate the ongoing drought and could damage vulnerable crops. The region will hope for showers next week as the upper-level low moves near the region, but that is not guaranteed.

FAVORABLE DELTA WEATHER

A system moving through the northern Delta continues to produce scattered showers Wednesday and may continue over southern areas through the coming weekend. More widespread showers are likely next week due to an upper-level system moving through. Recent dryness was beneficial for those still left to plant soybeans and cotton and soil moisture is adequate for early growth.

SCATTERED SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Isolated showers moved through the Southeast recently, but many areas remained dry as soil moisture continues to dissipate. Models suggest more pop-up type showers should be expected this week and a front may linger over the major production areas this weekend into next week, allowing for at least some chance for improving soil moisture conditions.

HOT, DRY IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is adequate in the Canadian Prairies due to recent heavy precipitation, but more is needed to end drought for many areas. Very little shower activity is expected this week but could increase this weekend and especially next week as several systems move through the area. Temperatures well below normal last week caused widespread frosts and freezes and a likely need to reseed. Temperatures this week are forecast to be well above normal but could fall below normal this weekend into next week depending on how far south the cold air can move.

STATUS QUO DRY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Limited moisture continues in central Brazil with better showers recently over the south. The major winter corn production states in the middle of the country continue to suffer as another week of nearly complete dryness is forecast for these areas, along with above normal temperatures. Some isolated showers will be possible through the week across southern states with another system bringing moderate to heavy rainfall this weekend into next week. Again, the front is not expected to make it to the central states.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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