Commodities Market Impact Weather

Variable Midwest Rain Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Variable rainfall in the Midwest forecast and more withering dryness in Brazil are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Wednesday.


The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a notable mix in rainfall prospects across the Midwest. Moderate to heavy amounts with totals exceeding 2 inches are indicated in the seven-day forecast for portions of the southwestern sector of the region. Moderate amounts are expected in the southeastern sector. Meanwhile, the northern sector has no more than light to locally moderate totals. Temperatures below normal will continue to keep growth slow into the weekend, including a couple of frosty mornings yet to occur. Temperatures will rise this weekend into next week, helping to accelerate germination and early growth.


Southern Plains crop areas have seen recent widespread showers, which have boosted soil moisture for wheat and emerging corn and soybeans. Temperatures well-below normal will rise back up to normal during the next two days. A couple of more systems will bring more widespread showers this weekend through at least the middle of next week. This will continue to increase soil moisture, but temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal.


In the Northern Plains, a few showers may develop in western areas during the next two days. Several additional shower prospects are indicated through the weekend. Low temperatures and patchy frosts early this week have slowed crop development. A warming trend will help seeds germinate and achieve early growth. Some models suggest low temperatures could move back in next week, but that is uncertain.


The Delta will have several occurrences of moderate to heavy rain through midweek. The moisture will benefit early crop growth along with bringing some threat of flooding. Temperatures running mainly below normal will slow down the rate of crop development.


The southeastern U.S. has periods of rain in the forecast through the coming week. This will favor crop moisture. Some locally heavy amounts may produce flooding in locales near the Gulf Coast.


The Canadian Prairies have isolated to scattered showers through the balance of the week. However, the drought pattern will continue. A system in the middle to end of next week could bring widespread meaningful precipitation to the region.


In central Brazil, continued hot and dry conditions are in store for central crop areas. The dry season appears to have begun in Mato Grosso. Meanwhile, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana have dry conditions which are assessed as anomalous in the latest USDA weekly weather and crop bulletin. Prospects for the second-crop corn (safrinha) continue to be reduced in public and private estimates.


Argentina continues with no more than light rain in the seven-day forecast. The dry conditions favor row crop harvest.

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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