DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the Central and East. This pattern will continue through the week, though a cutoff low is undercutting the ridge in the West and will move across the southern tier late in the week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, a more progressive pattern will emerge with passing ridges and troughs.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal elsewhere. Temperatures will rise and fall through the end of the period as the pattern goes more progressive. A system will move into the West and then the Central next week with widespread showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...98 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...8 AT NEIHART MT AND PRYOR MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...ORLANDO FL 0.70 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough moving down into the eastern U.S. with a ridge in the west. This ridge-west and trough-east pattern will continue through most of this week. A cutoff low is escaping underneath the ridge in the West and will move across the southern tier of the country late this week and weekend. Models suggest that the main trough will retreat northward next week. This will maintain an active, but progressive pattern for next week. The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be above normal in the west and near to below normal elsewhere. Temperatures will rise and fall through the end of the period as the pattern goes more progressive. A system will move into the west and then the central next week with widespread showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures below normal will continue through the next week. Though showers have started to move back into the region, amounts have not been enough to reduce drought. A system next week shows more potential for moderate showers, but it is a long way out.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through this weekend, bringing beneficial showers to the entire region, but also well below normal temperatures. Hard freezes were recorded in the western half of the Plains, which may have damaged wheat. Risks for hard freezes continue through most of the week and may get into eastern areas as well, where corn planting has been more advanced.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will bring scattered rain and snow showers through early Wednesday along with fairly chilly low temperatures for the next several days. Some light frosts occurred in the northern half of the region this weekend but will be more likely widespread this week behind the front. Hard freezes may occur for much of the region, doing damage to winter wheat and emerged corn.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers moved through this weekend, but were light, allowing soils to drain and producers to get into the fields. A front that moves through on Tuesday night could produce frosts for northern areas Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing damage to wheat and emerged soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers moved through this weekend, but were more pronounced along the Gulf Coast, where more flooding has been noted. The region will be relatively dry this week, allowing any wet soils to drain and allowing for more planting progress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A front brought scattered snow showers to the region this weekend, being moderate in Alberta but lighter elsewhere. The entire region continues to be in drought this spring. Another front will move through Thursday and Friday with more moderate snow showers in Alberta but less elsewhere. The cold continues through the week but could retreat northward next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell this weekend as a front moved slowly northward. This is very timely for safrinha corn, but amounts were mostly less than one inch. The showers will dry up from south to north by the middle of this week. Another front moves through this weekend, but showers do not look to be very widespread or heavy. The end of the wet season appears to be starting for central Brazil as fronts start to clear the majority of the country's growing regions. This will overall stress safrinha corn that has been planted very late. Chances for showers may be better for southern areas as fronts tend to linger a bit longer here.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly dry conditions have been noted recently, favorable for corn and soybean harvesting. A front will move into the country on Wednesday and bring showers into the weekend before moving northward. Widespread moderate to heavy showers are anticipated for most areas, bogging down harvest progress.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend, continuing to produce mostly favorable conditions for developing winter grains. Lower temperatures remained across the west and north, with patchy frosts possibly causing some damage. Another cold front later this week could produce more frosts and freezes for northern and eastern areas through the coming weekend, as concern for damage continues for vulnerable plants. Across the south, warmth and periods of showers should maintain favorable conditions for reproductive winter grains. The cold across the north and east is likely to further delay spring planting for corn and other crops.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through the region this weekend and temperatures have been mild, allowing for more wheat to come out of dormancy, but cool enough to keep growth slow. Soil moisture has been good in the region due to above normal winter and spring precipitation, but the region could use some warmth for more progress. A cold shot may come this weekend into early next week, mostly for Ukraine. Temperatures are not expected to be damaging right now but will need to be watched.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Timely showers this past weekend but are now followed by several days of dryness. However, showers may return this weekend, favoring reproductive to filling wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): The region has been fairly dry lately, benefiting maturing corn and harvest activities. The dryness should last for the next week as well. To the east, some occasional periods will help rain-fed sugarcane and replenish some irrigation reserves.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT): Some scattered showers moved through northern New South Wales and southern Queensland over the weekend, but most areas remained dry, benefiting harvest activities for cotton and sorghum. Recent rainfall in the west and east have filled soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which should be getting underway. Little shower activity this week will favor all fieldwork activities.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell in northeastern China ahead of soybean and corn planting, which should be starting up in the next couple of weeks. Conditions have been mostly favorable across the country so far this spring, though it has been overly wet across the south for rice and sugarcane. Periods of showers this week will maintain mostly favorable conditions.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers have continued this spring have kept conditions favorable for much of the winter crops in northwestern India as they move through reproduction. Scattered showers have started to develop occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered rain and snow Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday into early Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday through Saturday.

East: Scattered rain and snow through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Scattered snow showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, well below normal Wednesday and Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday and Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Scattered showers west Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday, east Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Thursday and Friday, near normal Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

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