Commodities Market Impact Weather

Static South America Pattern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Unchanged conditions in the South America forecast and prospects for moisture in the U.S. Southern Plains are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Tuesday.

LIMITED MIDWEST MOISTURE

The DTN ag weather forecast continues with a call for very little precipitation in the Midwest during the coming week. The drier trend will combine with above-normal temperatures to coax winter wheat out of dormancy in the eastern Midwest. These areas have adequate to surplus soil moisture. In the western areas however, very little precipitation is expected. Drought may worsen until a system moves through in the middle of next week.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWER CHANCE

In the Southern Plains, scattered showers may move through the region late Thursday and Friday. This moisture may keep the drought from getting worse; however, if these showers do not happen, conditions will continue to be poor as wheat begins to come out of dormancy.

WARM AND DRY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains remain dry and warm for the next seven to 10 days. This will continue to build the dryness and drought in the region as we head toward spring.

RAIN EASES IN DELTA

In the Delta, heavy rain during the last week has bogged down soils and produced some flooding, causing some fieldwork delays. Showers are easing with a drier trend through the balance of the week. This drier trend will allow for soil drying to improve fieldwork conditions.

STILL RAINY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

In central Brazil, widespread rain this week will cause more delays for soybean harvest and safrinha (second crop) corn planting, though producers have been working around the showers during the past two weeks. CONAB, the supply department of Brazil's agriculture ministry, estimates that safrinha corn planting is only about one-third complete compared with more than 60% a year ago. The agency also assesses the Brazil soybean harvest at less than 25% complete; an increase of about eight percentage points from a week ago, but well-behind the 44% pace a year ago.

HOT AND DRY ARGENTINA FORECAST

Argentina's primary crop areas have a dry and hot forecast ahead. The week ahead offers very little precipitation. In addition, temperatures are headed for an above-normal trend, which is stressful for filling corn and soybeans.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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