DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...79 AT GAVIOTA CA

LOW WED...21 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...YUMA AZ 0.80 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough off the West Coast, a trough over the Southwest, a ridge building in the Southeast, and a wide trough across the north. Impulses will continually push the trough to the west over the next 10 days while the ridge continues in the Southeast. This will produce more of a trough-west and ridge-east look through early next week. The trough may shift so far westward in the middle and end of next week, that a ridge-west and trough-east pattern establishes itself.

The U.S. and European models have opposing views on the pattern next week and weekend. I will use a blend for much of the forecast, but lean on the European more with time.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal across the West and North and above normal across the South. Temperatures are expected to rise some across the North-Central and Pacific Northwest with time. A system is expected to move out of the Rockies and through the Plains eastward in the middle-to-end of next week. Another storm may follow behind it next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Below normal temperatures are expected to filter into the region Friday and continue through much of next week, putting more stress on livestock as we get into calving.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Showers have been relegated to Oklahoma and Texas this week as a couple pieces of energy produce some rainfall there. Two systems may bring several rounds of light to moderate precipitation across the region this weekend through next week, but the driest sections in the west toward the Rockies will have the lowest chances at anything meaningful.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A pattern change will bring several waves of precipitation through the region this weekend through next week. Moderate to heavy snow will be possible across the north, along with chances for freezing rain early next week. Both would have significant impacts for travel and transport.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Last week's moderate to heavy rainfall benefited reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. Showers will continue across the west and south this week as a front lingers nearby, though amounts are forecast to be below normal for most areas. Eastern areas may show more signs of stress due to the dryness. With more of the crop advancing into maturity, attention is turning more toward second-season corn prospects. The lower than normal rainfall will not help to fill soils that are in need of more moisture.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Moderate to heavy showers occurred last week into the weekend. But dryness has replaced it and continues this week. Temperatures below normal will reduce moisture demand, but daytime highs will still be in the lower to middle 30s Celsius (middle 80s to lower 90s Fahrenheit). A weak system may bring some isolated showers this weekend but the dry trend will stress developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. A more meaningful chance at widespread showers comes in the middle of next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Multiple systems continue to move through the continent through early next week with renewed showers across the south, benefiting developing winter wheat. The showers continue to provide adequate soil moisture for dormant crops over the north. Significant cold across Ukraine and southern Russia this week may have produced some winter kill for winter wheat but temperatures are rising in the region.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): The storm track is shifting to the north, leaving the region mostly dry over the next week. A couple of instances of light showers can be counted on to break this up, but amounts will be below normal. Despite this, recent showers have provided positive outlooks for developing winter wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Near daily showers over the last two months are becoming very isolated. Still, conditions remain beneficial for developing to reproductive corn and developing sugarcane. We are eyeing the possibility of Tropical Cyclone Eloise impacting the region this weekend into early next week.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Mostly dry weather over the last week has put some strain on developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum, though irrigation reserves are adequate for the time being. Some periods of showers are expected across the east over the next couple of days, but coverage and amounts will likely be on the lower end.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Showers have recently been more isolated across western areas of the region over the past week. This will continue for the next day or two before showers increase again for the weekend. Despite the dry spell, adequate to surplus rainfall so far this season should produce excellent prospects in the region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday, snow north. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday, including heavy snow and freezing rain north.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday.

Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday, snow north. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday, below normal north and above normal south Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers, heavier west. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east and scattered showers west through Sunday.

Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

John Baranick