Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Attention to rain prospects in the major Brazil crop areas and variable precipitation indications for central Argentina are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

EASTERN MIDWEST SHOWER CHANCE

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for dry conditions in the Midwest through the weekend. The five- to seven-day time frame features rain chances over the eastern Midwest with light to locally moderate amounts. Western sectors will be mainly dry. Longer-term dryness concern in the western Midwest is likely through the end of the fall and through the winter.

DRY AND WINDY IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

A dry pattern is in effect for the Southern Plains through the next seven days. This is unfavorable for winter wheat. Strong winds in the next two days will further dry out soils and may cause some blowout damage. Kansas crop conditions are notably worse than a year ago at 31% good to excellent compared with 51% good to excellent at this same time in November 2019.

MILD NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

Northern Plains areas have a dry and mild forecast through the next week. Precipitation will be confined to occasions of light snow crossing the region during the weekend. No adverse conditions for transport or livestock are indicated.

DRIER SOUTHEAST PATTERN

Delta and Southeast crop areas will be dry through the next seven days. This drier trend will be favorable for late-stage harvest.

CLOSE WATCH ON BRAZIL RAIN

Brazil crop areas continue with a forecast for moderate to heavy rain through the next week. This forecast will be closely watched for crop moisture benefit. Some locales have received moderate to heavy amounts with beneficial crop moisture. Follow-up occurrences will be tracked over the next two weeks.

VARIABLE ARGENTINA SHOWERS

Argentina crop areas continue with periods of rain forecast through the rest of the week. Amounts are expected to be light. The presence of a La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean leads to prospects for below-average precipitation in the 2020-21 growing season. Corn and soybean production estimates have already been lowered in anticipation of dryness impact.

SOUTH RUSSIA RAIN CHANCE

In the Black Sea region, South Russia wheat areas have periods of rain in the seven-day forecast. Wheat in the Black Sea region is still likely to go into the dormant phase for winter with soil moisture deficits.

SCATTERED AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Scattered light showers continue in the seven-day Australia forecast. The pattern of light showers will offer very little disruption to wheat harvest. The Australia wheat crop is expected to be more than 80% larger than the drought-reduced crop of 2019-20.

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Editor's Note: Be among the first to hear Bryce Anderson's 2021 weather outlook, and its implications on crop yields and markets, by attending this year's DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 7-9. Our premier farmer and rancher event is virtual this year, and features thought-provoking presentations on global trade, grain and livestock market outlooks, a look at how farmers are using data to increase profits and build resilience into their operations, the latest on tax issues and many other topics. Speakers include U.S. Ambassador Kip Tom, farmers Reid and Heather Thompson and farm blogger Meredith Bernard, Microsoft Chief Scientist Ranveer Chandra, personal development speakers David Horsager and Jon Gordon, and many more.

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Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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