Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Light rain in the Argentina forecast and limited rain for the Black Sea region wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast features a warm and dry pattern across the Midwest during this first week of November. This pattern will favor late-stage harvest and fall fieldwork. A much colder pattern with wintry precipitation is indicated in the 10-day forecast.

LIMITED MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

The remainder of this week has a dry and warm pattern in store for the Southern Plains. Western sectors of the region still need moisture. This drier area has very little precipitation indicated in the seven- to 10-day time frame. Winter wheat ratings are well below a year ago at only 41% good to excellent. The Kansas crop rating shows less than 30% rated good to excellent.

VARIABLE NORTHERN PLAINS CONDITIONS

Northern Plains areas have dry and very warm conditions ahead through the balance of this week. The dry trend will be very useful for the final stage of harvest along with fall fieldwork. Much colder conditions with occurrences of snow move into the region during the seven- to 10-day period.

DRY DELTA FORECAST

Delta and Southeast crop areas have dry and mild conditions ahead during this week. This combination will allow for improved harvest progress along with field work. Tropical Storm Eta will be tracked over the next week for the possibility of affecting the Southeast.

MIXED BRAZIL RAIN

Brazil crop areas have a mixed rain forecast during the next seven days. Northern and central areas have light to locally moderate amounts indicated, while southern crop areas have little to no rain ahead. This brings concern to central and southern crop areas where soil moisture needs are most acute.

DRY CONCERN IN ARGENTINA

Argentina crop areas have either dry conditions or no more than light rain forecast during the next seven days. Soil moisture is in short supply over northern and western crop areas. This drier trend offers no meaningful easing of soil moisture concerns.

SCATTERED RUSSIA SHOWERS

Russia wheat areas again have scattered light showers forecast through the balance of the week. Wheat areas continue with precipitation deficits of well less than half the long-term average over the past three months. The Black Sea region is still likely to go into the dormant phase for winter wheat with soil moisture deficits.

WIDESPREAD AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Australia wheat areas have widespread showers forecast through the next seven days. Rainfall will bring some disruption to wheat harvest while offering useful moisture for summer crops. The Australia wheat crop is expected to be the largest since the record crop of 2016.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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