Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A strong cold wave forming over the United States and limited rainfall for Black Sea wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

STORMS AND COLD IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a stormy Midwest pattern through the next seven days, along with notably lower temperatures. Snow and rain in the northern and western Midwest are already delaying harvest. Rain moves into the eastern Midwest Thursday into Friday. The entire region is in line for much colder conditions through the end of October. The colder pattern will be unfavorable for field and crop drying and will delay harvest efforts.

MUCH COLDER SOUTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

Very cold temperatures for the season are indicated for the southern Plains during the next seven days. The cold pattern may be stressful to early developing winter wheat. There will also be occurrences of rain develop in portions of the region, notably in central Oklahoma and south-central Kanas, offering some easing of drought conditions.

BITTER COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas have bitter cold conditions ahead through the next seven days along with periods of snow. This combination will disrupt harvest and will be stressful to livestock. Overnight low temperatures during the Sunday-Monday time frame are set to plummet into the single digits Fahrenheit with below zero wind chill indexes.

SCATTERED DELTA SHOWERS

Delta and Southeast crop areas have periods of light showers indicated through the end of the week. Showers will bring some brief delays to harvest.

CONTINUED BRAZIL RAIN PROSPECT

Moderate to heavy rain is featured in the seven-day Brazil forecast. This forecast points to the beginning of the rainy season. Rainfall is welcome due to the start of the Brazil rainy season well-behind the average of Sept. 26.

PROMISING ARGENTINA RAIN CHANCE

Central Argentina continues with favorable chances for moderate rain over the next week. This will be favorable for row crop soil moisture ahead of planting.

LIMITED RUSSIA RAIN

Russia wheat areas have only light rain in the forecast this week. This is the heaviest rain total indicated so far this crop season; however, wheat crop benefit is expected to be minimal due to the late arrival of this moisture. Crop benefit is expected to be minimal. The entire Black Sea region is in rainfall deficits of 80 to 90% below normal over the past 60 days.

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Eastern Australia wheat areas have moderate to heavy rain indicated in the seven-day forecast. Rain of this quantity may be damaging to ripening wheat. Damage to wheat would be disappointing due to expectation of the largest Australia wheat crop in four years.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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