DTN Daily Basis Comments

Thursday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was 1 cent stronger at 23 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was up 6 cents at $3.90. The national average basis for soybeans was 1 cent stronger at 54 cents under the November futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 9 cents at $10.18. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent weaker at 27 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 2 cents at $5.43. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 31 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was up 5 cents at $5.51.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.90 $0.06 -$0.23 Dec $0.007
Soybeans: $10.18 $0.09 -$0.54 Nov $0.012
SRW Wheat: $5.98 -$0.03 -$0.31 Dec -$0.008
HRW Wheat: $5.43 -$0.02 -$0.27 Dec -$0.006
HRS Wheat: $5.51 $0.05 -$0.31 Dec -$0.001

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Wednesday is at 23 cents under the December futures, 1 cent stronger than Tuesday's basis. December corn was up 5 cents, reaching a new one-year high, despite weekly EIA data somewhat bearish for domestic corn demand. As plant production moves lower again, less corn will be needed to grind and, on top of that, cash corn has become expensive. While harvest progressed last week and was above the five-year average, more rain in the Eastern Corn Belt and unseasonably cold temps and snow in the Upper Midwest will stall harvest. Corn's strong start for exports this crop year is a bright light for the market on the demand side. The basis for shuttles delivered to the Pacific Northwest was 1 cent stronger for November and secondary shuttle freight has become cheaper. The bid for BNSF secondary freight in late October is at $400 per car above tariff and offered at $900 per car, while first half November is bid at $300 per car and offered at $700. UP secondary freight for last half October and first half November is bid at $300 per car and offered at $750 per car. Ethanol plant basis is mixed and shows strength at plants needing nearby corn to grind.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Wednesday is at 54 cents under the November futures, 1 cent stronger than Tuesday's basis. November soybeans closed up 8 cents Wednesday, with support coming from the $6.90 gain in December soybean meal. Besides the unsettled labor discussions in Argentina, there were various news reports of an explosion at a Bunge joint venture crushing plant at San Lorenzo in their upriver port complex. In addition, the tight supply of U.S. soybeans, given the strong export lineup and domestic use, will continue to be supportive to the market. Basis levels are stronger with the track PNW shuttle bids 5 cents stronger for October and 10 cents stronger for November. The shuttle bid delivered to St. Louis and the CIF GULF basis was stronger as well. Barge freight has slowed this week and while conditions in the Lower Mississippi may improve with the rain forecast, the river levels are still too low. American Commercial Barge Line reported that the Lower Miss is closed at Victoria Bend (LM 595) due to a vessel grounding and tow breakup. Industry boats are currently working to recover the adrift barges and re-open the river.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Wednesday is at 31 cents under the December futures, 1 cent weaker than Tuesday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

The national average HRW wheat basis for Wednesday is at 27 cents under the Kansas City December futures, 1 cent weaker than Tuesday's basis. The KC December futures closed down 1 1/4 cents as good news has been lacking, especially on the export front. Recent rains in Russia that should help germinate the crop has also pressured the market. The Texas Gulf HRW wheat basis was 10 cents weaker, while the PNW basis was 5 cents stronger. Milling basis was steady with no cars showing sold on the KC spot market.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Wednesday is at 31 cents under the Minneapolis December futures, unchanged from Tuesday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis December futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were unchanged at +100*; 13.5% proteins were down 25 cents to down 30 cents at +105*; 14% proteins were unchanged to up 25 cents at +110N to +135; 14.5% proteins were up 10 cents at +120*; 15% proteins were up 10 cents to down 5 cents at +150 to +170. Receipts were 101 cars, which included three trains.* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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