Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A delayed start to the rainy season in South America and concerning weather extremes in world wheat regions are key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

WETTER AND COOLER MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast continues to call for moderate to heavy rain and some snow in the Midwest through the next seven days. This combination will cause harvest disruption. Harvest is running well ahead of average but will have more difficulty maintaining that pace with this week's conditions.

STRESSFUL SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

Dryness is stressing wheat in the Southern Plains; Kansas conditions at 31 percent good to excellent are well below the 55 percent total of a year ago. Very little precipitation is forecast through the next week. Wheat is likely to go into dormancy with ongoing dryness and drought issues.

SNOW AND COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas have a colder pattern with periods of snow in store through the balance of the week. This wintry precipitation will disrupt harvest progress. Impact of this pattern, however, will be minimal due to significant progress already in row crop harvest.

DRY DELTA PATTERN

Dry conditions continue in the Delta and Southeast through the week. Harvest progress will be favored. Recent hurricane activity has brought heavy rain and strong winds, leading to harvest delays and crop damage to cotton in the southern and southeastern U.S.

DELAYED BRAZIL RAINY SEASON

Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for central Brazil during this week. This forecast points to the beginning of the rainy season. The start of the rainy season is about a month later than the 30-year average, which leads to concern over soybean acreage totals. There is also long-term concern over the evolution of the important safrinha corn crop season in central Brazil during the first and second quarters of calendar year 2021.

ADDITIONAL ARGENTINA RAIN PROSPECT

Central Argentina continues with favorable chances for moderate rain over the next week. This will be favorable for row crop soil moisture ahead of planting.

LIMITED RUSSIA RAIN

Russia wheat areas have light to moderate rain in the forecast this week. This is the heaviest rain total indicated so far this crop season; however, wheat crop benefit is expected to be minimal due to the late arrival of this moisture. Crop benefit is expected to be minimal. South Russia rainfall is in its driest period since August of the past 30 years.

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Eastern Australia wheat areas have moderate to heavy rain indicated in the seven-day forecast. Rain of this quantity may be damaging to ripening wheat. Damage to wheat would be disappointing due to expectation of the largest Australia wheat crop in four years.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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