DTN Daily Basis Comments

Tuesday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 26 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was unchanged at $3.54. The national average basis for soybeans was unchanged at 55 cents under the November futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 1 cent at $9.66. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent weaker at 26 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was up 14 cents at $4.98. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 31 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was up 4 cents at $5.05.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.54 $0.00 -$0.26 Dec $0.003
Soybeans: $9.66 $0.01 -$0.55 Nov -$0.001
SRW Wheat: $5.54 $0.10 -$0.30 Dec -$0.008
HRW Wheat: $4.98 $0.14 -$0.26 Dec -$0.006
HRS Wheat: $5.05 $0.04 -$0.31 Dec $0.005

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Monday is at 26 cents under the December futures, unchanged from Friday's basis. December corn closed down 1/4 cent, finding underlying strength from the higher winter wheat futures. The market is keeping an eye on harvest, which is adding some pressure to the futures market, while the cash basis remains firm. Weekly corn inspections for the week ended Oct. 1 showed total inspections in 2020-21 are up 81% from the previous year and are currently above USDA's forecast. The basis for shuttles delivered to the Pacific Northwest was 1 cent weaker for November, while the CIF GULF basis was 2 cents weaker on the offer side. Secondary shuttle freight has finally broke lower with first-half November bid at $300 per car above tariff and offered at $650, while last-half November is bid at $250 per car and offered at $550. Ethanol plant basis was weaker in areas that have seen some farmer selling off the combine, but basis levels overall are still a strong value for harvest time.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Monday is at 55 cents under the November futures, unchanged from Friday's basis. November soybeans managed a 3/4 cent higher close after trading on both sides of the fence Monday. The market is feeling some harvest pressure as combines continue to roll in the Midwest. The weekly inspections report showed that, for the week ended Oct. 1, total inspections in 2020-21 are up 57% from the prior year with USDA estimating soybean exports up 26% from the prior year. Soybean oil futures recovered along with crude and other vegetable oils, with December futures closing up 90 cents. Soybean meal went the opposite way after a strong finish to last week, closing lower with December down $5.90 as oil/meal spreading pressured that market. The track PNW basis was unchanged for first-half November and 5 cents weaker for last-half November. Processor basis overall is steady, especially at harvest. River basis is stronger, mainly on the Illinois River as the early reopening of Peoria Lock and Dam and expectations for LaGrange to open early next week has shippers getting ready to ship.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Monday is at 30 cents under the December futures, 1 cent weaker than Friday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

The national average HRW wheat basis for Monday is at 25 cents under the Kansas City December futures, 1 cent weaker than Friday's basis. The KC December futures started the week off strong, up 14 3/4 cents as dry conditions in parts of the U.S. Southern Plains and Russia fueled the rally. The concern is that dry conditions could become problematic for germination ahead of when new wheat should go dormant. Weekly inspections were good again, with 2020-2021 year-to-date inspections 9% above the prior year. Export basis at the Texas Gulf and PNW remains strong, and spot KC premium for 11% protein was 2 cents weaker.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Monday is at 31 cents under the Minneapolis December futures, unchanged from Friday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis December futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were not quoted; 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +120N; 14% proteins were up 5 cents to unchanged at +130B to +160; 14.5% proteins were down 20 cents at +140; 15% proteins were down 5 cents at +185 and 16 proteins were at +150. Receipts were 36 cars, which included one train*. (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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