Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Rainfall to again bypass the western Midwest and a warm and dry trend for the Black Sea region are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

SOUTHERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for periods of moderate to heavy rain in the southern Midwest over the next week. Rain offers some benefit for late-season row crops, especially soybeans. Northern areas have light to moderate rain indicated with similar impact. The drought-affected western and central areas have very little rain with continued stress and ongoing reduced yield prospects.

HOT PATTERN FOR SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS

Dry and very hot conditions are in store for the southwestern Plains over the next week. This combination is unfavorable for late-season row crops and leads to concern over soil moisture for planting winter wheat. South-central and southeastern Plains areas have moderate to heavy rain with better indication for pre-planting soil moisture. Sectors with better rain chances also have more seasonal temperatures in store.

MAINLY DRIER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains crop areas will be mostly dry over the next week. This trend will be favorable for spring wheat harvest. Rainfall focus will be in the eastern sector of the region, with some harvest delays possible.

VARIABLE DELTA AND SOUTHEAST RAIN

Delta and Southeast crop areas have variable rain in the seven-day forecast. Northern areas have moderate to heavy amounts indicated. Southern areas have much lighter rainfall in store. Rain will favor late-season soybeans but will cause harvest disruption in corn and may damage open-boll cotton.

LIGHT PRAIRIES RAIN

Light rain continues in store for the Canadian Prairies through the next five days. Dryness is most prominent in Saskatchewan.

CONTINUED DRY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central Brazil crop areas continue with have a dry pattern through the next week. This trend will be closely watched for possible change ahead of mid-September. The mid-September period is the official starting date for the beginning of soybean planting. Southern crop areas have moderate to heavy rain in store.

VARIABLE RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Argentina's northern wheat areas in Cordoba and Santa Fe have moderate rainfall expected over the next week. High producing southern areas in Buenos Aires and La Pampa have no more than light rain indicated.

DRY AND WARM IN RUSSIA

In the Black Sea region, Russia and Ukraine have a mainly very warm and dry pattern through the next week. This combination is unfavorable for corn in its late-filling and pre-harvest stages.

MIXED AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Australia wheat areas have a mixed rainfall outlook over the next week. Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria will have light to moderate rain. Queensland will have only scattered light rainfall. Wheat crop prospects are looking much better in Australia than a year ago.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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