Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Improved soil moisture in the Midwest and mixed rain in the Southern Plains are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

IMPROVED MIDWEST MOISTURE

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for improved Midwest soil moisture after recent rainfall. Moderate to heavy rain has fallen across the bulk of the region since last Thursday. Some flooding has occurred, but the rainfall was welcome after dry weather for the better potion of the previous week. Dryness had been mounting in the eastern half of the region, but the recent showers have put a substantial dent into the deficits. After the system exits eastward Tuesday, a few days of pop up showers and good growing conditions will follow. More widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected Friday through the weekend to keep up with moisture demand from developing crops.

MIXED SOUTERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Southern Plains, recent rain has been mixed. Central areas received heavy to very heavy amounts. Western and eastern areas had notably lighter totals. Wheat harvest progress will be variable due to the differing rainfall. A few periods of more isolated showers are expected this week before another front looks to bring more widespread moderate showers Friday and Saturday. The southwest sector continues to have severe to extreme drought, with stress to grain and cotton crops along with pasture conditions.

LATE WEEK SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, the next likely rain event is indicated for Thursday and Friday. Widespread moderate rainfall is expected. This would be important moisture following recent dryness in the western sector of the region.

USEFUL DELTA RAIN

The Delta will have continued showers Tuesday, and over the south through Thursday, providing favorable crop moisture. Another system this weekend is likely to provide for more showers and improve crop conditions and prospects.

SCATTERED SOUTHEAST RAIN

Across the southeastern U.S., scattered showers will continue through the week, typical of this time of year. This should maintain good prospects on cotton so far this season.

SHOWERS FOR PRAIRIES

Scattered rain showers are in store for the Canadian Prairies Tuesday. A storm system with heavier rain prospects is indicated to move through the region during late week. Some of the drier areas in the east may see more moderate rainfall during this time period, which would be highly beneficial to emerging and developing spring wheat.

VARIABLE RUSSIA RAIN

Scattered rain is occurring in portions of the Black Sea region, mainly in western Ukraine. Coverage is more limited in eastern Ukraine and Russia. This continues to be the norm through Wednesday before more dryness settles in to finish out the week.

SHOWERS TARGET EASTERN EUROPE

In Europe, an upper level low pressure center may remain cut off from the jet stream flow, continuing shower activity over the eastern half of the continent this week. The west will see heat building in through the week, with rain delayed until the weekend.

LATE-WEEK RAIN FOR BRAZIL

Brazil crop areas were mainly dry over the past several days. The growing season for corn and cotton is just about over for most of the region and the continued dry conditions will have less of an impact going forward. Most of the wheat areas in the south are in good shape, as showers continue over Rio Grande do Sul through the front half of the week with showers lifting further north into Mato Grosso do Sul up to Sao Paulo later in the week and through the weekend.

LIGHT ARGENTINA SHOWERS

In Argentina, showers last week were not enough to relieve soil moisture deficits for the interior central and southern growing areas, where stress on developing winter wheat continues. Scattered showers this week look better over eastern and northern areas, continuing the concern over the interior. Cold air pouring in late this week through the weekend may also cause frosts and freezes for portions of the region as well.

FAVORABLE AUSTRALIA CONDITIONS

Australia wheat areas continue with mostly favorable conditions for developing wheat. Queensland still needs additional rain.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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