DTN Daily Basis Comments

Monday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was 1 cent weaker at 22 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was up 1 cent at $3.11. The national average basis for soybeans was 2 cents weaker at 46 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 2 cents at $8.31. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent stronger at 22 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was unchanged at $4.06. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 24 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was unchanged at $5.01.

DTN CashChange FromNationalContractChange from
CommodityIndexPrev DayAvg. BasisMonthPrev Day
Corn:$3.11$0.01-$0.22Jul-$0.005
Soybeans:$8.31$0.02-$0.46Jul-$0.016
SRW Wheat:$4.59-$0.05-$0.22Jul-$0.028
HRW Wheat:$4.06$0.00-$0.22Jul$0.004
HRS Wheat:$5.01$0.00-$0.24Jul$0.002

CORN: The national average corn basis for Friday is at 22 cents under the July futures, 1 cent weaker than Thursday’s basis. July corn closed up 1 1/2 cents Friday and for the week gained 2 1/2 cents. The market performed well in spite of a bearish weekend weather forecast, perhaps finding strength in news out of China that the corn in their northeast area is seeing an early visit from the fall armyworm. DTN Entomologist Scott B. Williams said, "Fall armyworm is a particularly worrisome pest and China's wise to take it seriously. Fall armyworm is treatable. There are a number of products labeled for their management. Transgenic crops with Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) traits have also been deployed against it, but have run into issues as the moth has developed resistance to the traits used." This will bear watching to see if this pest could affect the size of the corn crop in China, which could lead to them having to import corn. The basis for shuttles delivered to the Pacific Northwest was steady and while there hasn't been much in the way of fresh business, there are still prior commitments needing to be met as vessels arrive at the PNW. Ethanol plant basis is mixed and plants needing old-crop corn will pay up for spot loads if needed.

SOYBEANS: The national average soybean basis for Friday is at 46 cents under the July futures, 2 cents weaker than Thursday’s basis. July soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents Friday, an 11-week high and for the week gained 5 1/4 cents. Soybean oil futures rose 46 basis points Friday, adding to the strength in the soybean market. Higher Malaysian palm oil futures and a three-month high close in crude oil helped soybean oil make gains as well. The market is still hoping for fresh China purchases given that U.S. soybeans at the Gulf are 34 cents cheaper than Brazil soybeans at this time. The track PNW shuttle basis is steady nearby, but the Sept/Oct basis remains the strongest as most of the recent China purchases have been new crop. Processors are bidding according to their needs for crushing, but overall remain steady. The DTN national average basis to end the week is 1 cent weaker versus one week ago.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT: The national average SRW wheat basis for Friday is at 22 cents under the Chicago July futures, 3 cents weaker than Thursday’s basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT: The national average SRW wheat basis for Friday is at 22 cents under the Chicago July futures, 1 cent stronger than Thursday’s basis. The KC July was down 1/4 cent Friday and for the week lost 20 1/4 cents as harvest pressure prevailed along with a lack of fresh export business. Harvest in Kansas was stalled by weekend rains, but the harvest report for the week showed an increase in protein to 11.1% which has the mills breathing a small sigh of relief. Still, there is still a lot of wheat to cut so that protein is still not a given.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT: The national average HRS wheat basis for Friday is at 24 cents under the Minneapolis July futures, unchanged from Thursday’s basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis July futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were not quoted, 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +135N, 14% proteins were unchanged to up 10 cents at +150 to +160*, 14.5% proteins were at +155 and 15% proteins were unchanged at +155N. Receipts were 98 cars, which includes three trains.* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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