Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A warmer and drier trend in the central U.S. 10-day forecast, and mostly dry conditions in both Brazil and Argentina, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST PATTERN TURNS DRIER

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a drier trend in the Midwest during the next week. Precipitation is indicated during the coming weekend as well as during the middle of the March 29-April 4 week. Overall precipitation is expected to be light to moderate, offering some easing of very wet soil moisture conditions.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONDITIONS

In the Southern Plains, very warm and windy conditions will be stressful to winter wheat in the next 24 hours. Storm systems are indicated to track through the region in the five-to-seven-day time frame, offering rain for most of the region.

LIGHT NORTHERN PLAINS PRECIPITATION

Northern Plains areas have some light mixed precipitation forecast through the end of the week. A generally drier trend is favorable for the delayed corn harvest, along with other fieldwork during the next week.

VARIABLE DELTA RAIN OUTLOOK

The Delta has storm activity with moderate rain potential during the end of the week. Another round of rain is indicated during the middle of next week. The dry time between storms could be enough to at least allow fields to drain and may offer some opportunity for spring fieldwork.

CONTINUED SOUTHERN BRAZIL DRYNESS

Most Brazil crop areas have below-normal precipitation forecast over the next five days. Crop stress is likely, notably in southern Brazil where dryness has been most acute. The state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil is now estimated to produce its lowest soybean crop in the past four years.

SCATTERED ARGENTINA SHOWERS

Argentina has scattered rain in the forecast through the end of the week. Some moderate amounts are expected over central growing areas, which will help late-filling corn and soybeans, but other areas will come under stress due to limited precipitation and very warm to hot conditions. The rain pattern remains scattered through the weekend.

COLD PATTERN WATCH IN EUROPE

Western and southern Europe wheat areas have seen wheat enter the jointing stage of development, which is two-to-four weeks earlier than normal. As a result, the crop is vulnerable to damage from late-season cold (temperature at or below minus 10 degrees Celsius, or 14 degrees above zero Fahrenheit). A colder pattern is forecast through the weekend, which will bear watching.

COOLER BLACK SEA TREND

In the Black Sea region, Russia and Ukraine have mostly favorable soil moisture for winter wheat, which is two-to-three weeks earlier than normal in its post-dormancy development. A cold outbreak continues over the next couple of days and could be a concern for this early developing crop, especially over western areas.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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