Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Beneficial Argentina rain, some showers for southern Brazil next week, and an active pattern for the next 10 days in the United States are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

COLD AND STORMY IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for an active pattern to continue to bring several systems to the Midwest during the next 10 days with snow north and west and rain south and east. Saturated soils remain a concern. Colder weather is expected, reaching well below normal by Friday.

STORMS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, temperatures will be below normal for most areas, but not overly so. Colder areas to the north may see more signs of livestock stress Thursday, but this is short-lived. Moderate precipitation from several storms over the next 10 days helps to boost soil moisture for many areas. A few areas of heavier snowfall will stress livestock in the west.

ARCTIC COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

For the Northern Plains, there will be a blast of very low temperatures mid to late week, but it will return closer to normal by the weekend. A blizzard is possible as winds increase over the Dakotas Wednesday that usher in the cold air. High temperatures not breaking into the single digits above zero Fahrenheit in some areas on Wednesday and Thursday may lead to short-term stress on livestock. No major winter storms are expected, though. Temperatures remain below normal but not overly so through the middle of next week.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN NEXT WEEK

Brazil will see limited chances for additional precipitation over southern areas until Friday. There is some hope for more persistent showers in this area next week to ease some dryness. Continued periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the rest of the growing areas, though northeastern areas (Bahia) continue to fall behind in needed rainfall. Crop damage and reduced production is expected in these areas. Otherwise, some delay is expected in the harvest of soybeans and planting progress for cotton and safrinha (second-crop) corn.

BENEFICIAL ARGENTINA RAIN

A few more shots at moderate precipitation are forecast for Argentina during the next 10 days, beneficial for developing corn and soybeans.

WARMER FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Russia and Ukraine will have warmer conditions return this week and continue for the next seven to 10 days. Otherwise, the snow that fell last week is likely to boost soil moisture in the area.

BENEFICIAL SOUTH AFRICA TREND

South Africa will turn a bit drier over the next few days, but recent rains continue favorable conditions for developing to reproductive maize and sugarcane. There are no significant concerns for crops.

RAIN FOR EUROPE

There has been plenty of rain and a return to above-normal temperatures for much of Europe. Higher temperatures mostly favors winter wheat and rapeseed crops but leaves them less winter hardy than usual this time of year. The pattern continues to favor above-normal temperatures and no major cold snaps for at least the next two weeks.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAIN

Increased rains have developed over the last week in Australia, with much of the Queensland and New South Wales crop areas receiving at least an inch of much-needed rainfall. It is likely not enough; however, some areas have lucked out where thunderstorms have trained in the last few days. Areas toward the coast in the sugarcane growing areas have fared much better, though flooding has been observed, especially right along the coast and in the river valleys. Additional rainfall is expected this week, but again favors the coast. A tropical cyclone looks to stay offshore late this week into the weekend. If it stays the right distance from shore, it will give a temporary dry period to the inundated soils.

DRIER PATTERN FOR INDIA

Decent rains over the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops in India. The weather pattern is drier during the next 10 days, but crops look to be in good shape.

ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS CHINA MOISTURE

Precipitation has been more than adequate this winter in China's winter wheat and rapeseed areas. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crop areas this spring, including irrigation reserves to the north.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(ES/)

Copyright 2020 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.