Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Heavy precipitation in the Northern Plains and Midwest, unfavorable heavy rain and snow for the Canadian Prairies, and chances for improved moisture for central Brazil soybean areas, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

HEAVY RAINS FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for another round or two of heavy rains and the end of this week or during this weekend and early next week in the Midwest. This rain pattern will lead to additional risk of flooding, especially over western and north-central areas. Above- to near-normal temperatures for at least another seven days will favor corn and soybean development, which continues to run well behind normal in most areas. Temperatures will also turn lower late in the 10-day period, including lows in the 30s Fahrenheit in northwest areas, but it is too soon to tell whether or not this might mean frost.

FREEZE POSSIBILITY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, a new heavy rain event is expected to develop in the west and spread east during the weekend. This includes heavy snow and wind in central/west Montana. Conditions turn very cold for the season as well. The progress of this cold wave begins in Montana and expands into North Dakota. Cold and wet conditions will again delay the spring wheat harvest, and will be unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans. A hard freeze is likely in central Montana. A frost and light freeze in eastern Montana may also affect western and possibly central North Dakota by early next week.

IMPROVING SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

The Southern Plains will have improving soil moisture conditions and favorable temperatures for planting and early development of winter wheat, outside of west-central areas where it is somewhat too dry and sometimes too warm.

COLDER, SNOW IN PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, a turn to much colder weather is expected at the end of this week, this weekend and early next week. This likely means a season-ending hard freeze through Alberta and western and northern crop areas of Saskatchewan. In southeast Saskatchewan and in Manitoba, lows will eventually fall to 28-32 F, but this is a little more uncertain and not until early next week. Immature crops, especially canola, will be at risk of damage and quality reductions due to this cold snap. Also of concern, a major precipitation event is expected from southern Alberta across southern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba during Saturday night or Sunday and Sunday night through early Monday. This means precipitation totals of 0.50 inch to 1.50 inches. In areas where this is all or mostly snow it likely means 12 inches or more of snow (30 centimeters or more). Cities that might hit this level include Lethbridge and Medicine Hat in Alberta, and Swift Current and Regina in Saskatchewan. The farther to the north you go in Alberta, the drier it will be and the risk of heavy snow drops off rapidly. The farther to the east you go in Saskatchewan to Manitoba, the warmer it will be and these areas will see more rain than snow.

IMPRIVING CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Brazil's central crop areas had scattered showers and somewhat cooler conditions during the past 24 hours but still in a 90 to 95 F range for afternoon highs. Cooler or much cooler weather is expected to move up from the south during today, along with scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers. Showers may linger in Mato Grosso for a couple days beyond that. This should help to improve conditions for planting.

INCREASING RAINS FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Increasing rain activity will improve soil moisture conditions for planting and early growth of winter grains and oilseeds through west and central Europe, weather permitting. Lower temperatures will, at times, slow germination and early development.

WESTERN UKRAINE RAIN POSSIBILITY

Late-summer/early fall dryness has become of increasing concern in west and north Ukraine. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains continues to diminish. There is some chance that rain chances will improve during the next 10 days.

CENTRAL CHINA DRY, WARM

Dryness and drought is of increasing concern for winter wheat and rapeseed areas from the south and east-central areas of the NCP into the Yangtze River Valley in central China. These areas are likely to continue drier and warmer than normal during the next seven days. Beyond that time period, the models are suggesting that rain might move into the western and northern growing areas. If verified, this would include at least a portion of key growing areas of Henan province.

SOME WEEKEND RAIN FOR AUSTRALIA

Drought has significantly affected winter wheat in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland in Australia. Some showers in southeast Queensland during the next few days is too late for wheat and might delay the harvest. Recent frost and light freeze conditions may have affected any flowering winter wheat in southern West Australia since late last week. Otherwise, weekend rains will favor developing wheat in southern South Australia, Victoria and parts of southern NSW. Drier weather is becoming of more concern in Western Australia.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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