DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Fertilizer prices continue to erode, but the pace of decline slowed, according to retailers tracked by DTN for the second week of September 2019. It's the fifth consecutive week that the price of all eight fertilizers fell.

One difference, however, is that only one price dropped significantly, which DTN considers a price change of 5% or more.

The price of anhydrous was down 5% from last month's price at $516/ton, a $27 decline.

MAP prices dropped 4%, to $482/ton, a decline of $21/ton.

The remaining six fertilizers were all lower in price than last month, but their moves were fairly slight. DAP had an average price of $486/ton, down $7; potash $385, down $2; urea $407/ton, down $6; 10-34-0 $471/ton, down $4; UAN28 $253/ton, down $5; and UAN32 $289/ton, down $6.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.44/lb.N, anhydrous $0.31/lb.N, UAN28 $0.45/lb.N and UAN32 $0.45/lb.N.

With lower retail fertilizer prices now in place, it seems logical to assume farmers would be willing to apply more nutrients. However, several farmers who spoke with DTN said they didn't change their plans when prices went up, and they won't change them now that prices are headed back down.

Joel Grams, who farms near Minden, Nebraska, said he really didn't alter his nutrient application plan much in recent years despite higher fertilizer prices. The south-central Nebraska farmer puts on about half of his nitrogen through the center-pivot irrigation system, so he utilizes more liquid nitrogen than anhydrous.

"We still try to get fertilizer paid for early and hopefully get to take advantage of prices before they go back up, which I'm sure they will," Grams told DTN.

On the other side of the Corn Belt, Mike Cooprider is in no hurry to lock in fertilizer as the 2019 growing season comes to an end. The Howesville, Indiana, farmer said he will be holding off buying fertilizer until after harvest begins.

"I don't think prices will go higher," Cooprider said. "We will pay as we go."

Cooprider plans to work some ground after harvest and apply some manure and fertilizer. Depending on what soil tests say as well as what kind of yields are seen this fall, he will probably put down fertilizer at roughly the rate of what is removed this year, he said.

With prices significantly lower in recent weeks, the price of two fertilizers fell below last year's prices. MAP is now 7% less expensive and DAP is 1% lower from last year at this time.

The remaining six major fertilizers continue to be higher compared to last year. UAN32 is 4% more expensive; 10-34-0 is 5% higher; potash, anhydrous and UAN28 are all 6% more expensive; and urea is 7% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sep 10-14 2018	491	518	362	380
Oct 8-12 2018	501	523	365	393
Nov 5-9 2018	506	529	368	407
Dec 3-7 2018	501	529	369	410
Dec 31-Jan 4 2019	508	533	381	407
Jan 28-Feb 1 2019	513	536	384	407
Feb 25-Mar 01 2019	511	535	386	404
Mar 25-29 2019	509	534	385	401
Apr 22-26 2019	497	530	388	408
May 20-24 2019	497	527	392	428
Jun 17-21 2019	496	532	392	435
Jul 15-19, 2019	497	532	392	430
Aug 12-16 2019	493	503	387	413
Sep 9-13 2019	486	482	385	407
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sep 10-14 2018	449	487	238	278
Oct 8-12 2018	452	488	238	280
Nov 5-9 2018	458	517	245	287
Dec 3-7 2018	457	524	249	293
Dec 31-Jan 4 2019	460	571	267	304
Jan 28-Feb 1 2019	468	585	271	313
Feb 25-Mar 01 2019	470	596	270	318
Mar 25-29 2019	470	597	269	318
Apr 22-26 2019	483	594	268	315
May 20-24 2019	487	595	270	314
Jun 17-21 2019	487	589	270	318
Jul 15-19, 2019	485	585	275	317
Aug 12-16 2019	475	543	258	295
Sep 9-13 2019	471	516	253	289

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(KD/CZ)

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