Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Delayed Midwest crop development, and continued favorable later-season conditions in the Black Sea region, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

DELAYED MIDWEST CROP PROGRESS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mostly favorable weather for filling and maturing corn and soybeans in the Midwest. However, crop progress is well behind average, with some production loss possible even with an average first occurrence of freezing conditions. Northern areas have moderate-to-heavy rain in the forecast as well, which will further slow development.

COOL AND WET IN NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains has a good chance for moderate-to-heavy rain over the next week. The rain will further slow the pace of row-crop development, and will cause more quality damage and possible loss to spring wheat. Spring wheat harvest is already well behind average.

MINIMAL SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Southern Plains, more rain is needed for the upcoming winter wheat planting season in some areas. Overall soil moisture conditions in the major growing areas are favorable; however, drier weather during the next seven days will deplete some of this moisture.

HEAVY HURRICANE DORIAN RAIN

Category 3 Hurricane Dorian in the western Atlantic Ocean is forecast to bring damaging wind and storm surge to the Carolina coast during the balance of this week. Most crop and livestock areas will be bypassed by the hurricane track, thus avoiding extensive damage.

SLOW PRAIRIES DEVELOPMENT

Canadian Prairies crop areas will continue to have mild temperatures, with no frost, in the forecast through the next week to 10 days. However, periods of moderate-to-heavy rain will keep late-developing crops lagging in their slow push toward maturity.

DRY CENTRAL BRAZIL TREND

Ahead of the mid-September soybean planting beginning, central and northern Brazil crop areas have mostly dry conditions with above-normal temperatures indicated through the next 10 days. This will cause some delay in the onset of planting in these high-production areas.

MIXED EUROPE RAIN CHANCE

Across Europe, dry conditions remain of concern for late-filling summer crops in west and central Europe, and for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. Rainfall potential remains low in west and south France during the next 10 days. Rainfall potential may be somewhat higher in England, through the Benelux countries and Germany during this period. Temperatures will be mostly below normal during this period, slowing development of crops.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA PATTERN

In the Black Sea region, Russia and Ukraine have a warm and dry pattern indicated through the next five days. This combination will generally favor crops in the filling stage.

MORE INDIA MONSOON RAIN

Monsoon rain remains moderate to heavy for west-central and northern India crop regions.

STILL DRY IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Eastern Australia wheat areas will again remain dry through the next five days. Wheat crop prospects have steadily been lowered in Australia due to dryness.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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