Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Variable temperatures for the Midwest but no hard freeze threat yet and a major hurricane heading for Florida this upcoming long weekend are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for a variable temperature pattern for the Midwest during the next 10 days. There will be some cool and very cool mornings during this period, but also some warmer days. Crop development likely continues at a slower-than-normal pace during this time. Rainfall chances remain limited over the central and east areas. Thunderstorms in Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri during the short-range period may mean some locally heavy rains. Crop development remains well behind normal in most areas. An early freeze in the fall would have a major impact on crops.

TROPICAL UPDATE

Early this morning, the center of Dorian, now a Category 1 hurricane, was located about 150 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hurricane Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 miles per hour (20 kilometers/hour), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic Ocean well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas Thursday and Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Longer-range charts show a landfall along the east coast of Florida centered a little north of Vero Beach Monday night. However, uncertainty in this track means that anywhere along the Florida east coast and even to southernmost Georgia has at least some risk of a landfall. Current indications suggest a Category 3 hurricane at landfall.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly favorable moisture conditions for filling corn and soybeans are expected for the Northern Plains. Crop development remains well behind normal in most areas. An earlier-than-normal freeze in the fall would have a major impact on crops. Temperatures are likely to be variable for this region during the next 10 days, lowest in eastern locations.

WET, COOL FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies will be somewhat drier during the next few days. Showers are expected Sunday into Monday, mostly north and east. Late-filling crops may benefit from this rainfall while the wet weather may be somewhat unfavorable for early maturing crops. A warming trend during the next six or seven days will favor late-maturing crops in the region. After that, somewhat colder weather may redevelop, especially in east areas. Crops, especially canola, will need an extended growing season to escape damage or quality reductions from fall freeze conditions.

POSSIBLE STORMS IN CENTRAL PLAINS

Conditions are favorable for severe storms Thursday afternoon as a cold front tracks south-southeast across the Central Plains and Midwest; this could include damaging winds and large hail.

DRYNESS CONCERNS IN EUROPE

Dryness remains of some concern for late-filling summer crops in west and central Europe and for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. Thunderstorms Wednesday occurred from the Netherlands across northern Germany to northwest Poland. The outlook suggests lower temperatures will return to the region, but the best chance for needed rain to occur during the next seven days or so would be mostly from south and east Germany into Poland.

DRIER, HOTTER BLACK SEA PATTERN

In the Black Sea region, the region is likely to be drier and somewhat hotter during the next week to 10 days. Crops are in filling to maturing stages at this time. There's some impact to late-filling crops but mostly favorable conditions for maturing crops at this time. Soil moisture is reported as adequate for early planted winter grains, but will be diminishing with time.

MAINLY FAVORABLE CHINA CONDITIONS

Northeast China sees good-to-excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans. Episodes of showers and rain and cooler weather will mostly favor developing crops. However, if this pattern continues much longer it would become unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvesting.

INDIA MONSOON RAIN

An active monsoon rainy season continues in India. Heavy weekend rains were reported in northeast and central interior India and in the southwest. Moderate-to-heavy showers have moved across Rajasthan, west Gujarat and southeast Pakistan during the past 24 hours. This is an area that had been too dry recently and needed the rain. Crops that would benefit include groundnuts and cotton at this time of the year and winter rapeseed that will be planted in Rajasthan late this year.

RAINS NEEDED FOR AUSTRALIA WHEAT CROP

Wheat approaching or in reproduction in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland needs significant rain to prevent further declines in an already poor wheat crop. There is no significant rainfall in sight. Dryness is also affecting wheat in southern New South Wales at this time. Conditions for wheat are much better in west and southeast areas of Australia. Rainfall is also needed through the east-central Australia area to help replenish soil moisture and irrigation for cotton and sorghum that will be planted during September and October.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

Copyright 2019 DTN/Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

(CZ)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.