Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A continued cool pattern slowing crop development, but no hard freeze threat yet, and possible tropical moisture by this long weekend in the Southeast, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

COOL, DRIER FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for a cool pattern that will, at times, keep development of crops slower than usual for this date during the next three-to-five days. It will be somewhat warmer for a time following this period, but more cool weather is possible later in the six-to-10-day period. Crops will benefit from recent rainfall and at least some warm weather later in the seven-day period. Crop development remains well-behind normal in most areas. An early freeze in the fall would have a major impact on crops.

TROPICAL UPDATE

Tropical Storm Erin with 40-mile-per-hour winds, was located this morning about 265 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and tracking toward the north-northwest at 6 mph. It is expected to remain well off shore from the Carolinas, past just southeast of New England and move into Nova Scotia, Canada. It is likely to be post tropical when it reaches Nova Scotia Thursday night.

Tropical Storm Dorian, with 60-mph winds, was located about 85 miles southeast of St. Croix in the northeast Caribbean this morning and moving toward the northwest at 13 mph. This system is expected to pass over eastern Puerto Rico today, east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas Thursday, and near or east of the central and northwest Bahamas Friday or Saturday. The longer-range forecast is somewhat uncertain, but current indications suggest a significant risk to northeast Florida late this weekend or during Monday. It should be a hurricane by Thursday night.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly favorable moisture conditions for filling corn and soybeans are expected for the Northern Plains. Crop development remains well behind normal in most areas. An earlier-than-normal freeze in the fall would have a major impact on crops.

WET, COOL FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

Wet, cool conditions in eastern areas of the Canadian Prairies early this week will be unfavorable for maturing crops and will likely delay the early harvest. Cool or very cool weather will, at times, slow crop development elsewhere in the region. A significant freeze is not expected during the next five to seven days, despite the cooler-than-normal conditions early in this period. Crops, especially canola, will need an extended growing season to escape damage or quality reductions from fall freeze conditions.

STORMS LATER THIS WEEK FOR CENTRAL PLAINS

Southern Texas is seeing stressful heat. A storm system moving through the Upper Midwest will bring rain and storm chances to the Great Lakes to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Central Plains the latter half of this week into Saturday, with locally heavy rain possible across the Central Plains.

HOT, DRY FOR EUROPE

Hot, dry weather in western and southeast Europe early this week has increased stress to late-filling summer crops and dried soils for planting winter grains and oilseeds. The western Europe region should turn cooler later this weekend but without much rainfall expected. The eastern Europe crop belt will turn cooler after that, but in this case an increase in rainfall is expected. Rain in the eastern Europe region, along with the lower temperatures, will improve conditions for planting winter grain and oilseeds.

DRIER, HOTTER BLACK SEA PATTERN

In the Black Sea region, the region is likely to be drier and somewhat hotter during the next week to 10 days. Crops are in filling to maturing stages at this time. There's some impact to late-filling crops but mostly favorable conditions for maturing crops at this time. Soil moisture is reported as adequate for early planted winter grains, but will be diminishing with time.

MAINLY FAVORABLE CHINA CONDITIONS

Northeast China sees good-to-excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans. Episodes of showers and rain and cooler weather will mostly favor developing crops.

CONTINUED INDIA MONSOON RAIN

An active monsoon rainy season continues in India. Heavy weekend rains were reported in northeast and central interior India and in the southwest. Rain continued in the central interior soybean belt Monday. It was drier in and near Gujarat, India, during the weekend with some light showers Monday.

RAINS NEEDED FOR AUSTRALIA WHEAT CROP

Wheat approaching or in reproduction in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland needs significant rain to prevent further declines in an already poor wheat crop. There is no significant rainfall in sight. The low temperatures last week were near or slightly under freezing (28-32 Fahrenheit or minus 2 to zero Celsius). Any flowering wheat would be at risk of significant damage in areas of 32 F or lower. Conditions are more favorable in wheat areas of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria at this time.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(CZ)

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