Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A cool pattern this week slowing crop development, a bit drier for a few days in some areas of the Midwest, and moderate-to-heavy rains for parts of the Southern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

COOL, DRIER FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for mainly below-normal temperatures in the Midwest this week. There will be some beneficial showers for filling corn and soybeans in the dry areas of the central and eastern Midwest early this week.

The forecast for the western Midwest is for mostly dry conditions in the next few days, with only a few light showers possible Thursday favoring the southwest, and then showers and rain may occur Friday-into-Saturday favoring central and southern locations, then dry again Sunday.

For the eastern Midwest, we may see lingering showers early today, then mostly drier for the next few days until Friday, when we might see some light rain or showers favoring northern and western areas, and some light showers possible Saturday.

Heavy weekend rainfall in south Nebraska and Kansas has increased the flooding risk in these locations. Excessive runoff from recent heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low-lying spots. Crop development remains well behind normal in most areas. An early freeze in the fall would have a major impact on crops. Cool and sometimes very cool weather this week keeps development of crops slower than normal. In the six-to-10-day outlook for the Midwest, we are expecting rainfall near to below normal for the south and east areas, and near to above normal for northwest areas.

TROPICAL UPDATE

At 5 a.m. Atlantic Standard Time (AST), (0900 UTC),the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located about 30 miles southeast of Saint Lucia. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 miles per hour (20 kilometers/hour) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Dorian's path is still uncertain; however, portions of the Southeastern U.S., particularly across Florida, will have to be monitored for the potential of heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week, as Dorian approaches the coast.

At 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Savings Time (EDT), (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located 365 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The depression is drifting toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and is expected to move little through tonight, then accelerate northward Wednesday to northeastward Thursday-through-Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR N. PLAINS

Mostly favorable moisture conditions for filling corn and soybeans are expected for the Northern Plains. Crop development remains well behind normal in most areas. An earlier-than-normal freeze in the fall would have a major impact on crops.

WET, COOL FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

Wet, cool conditions in eastern areas of the Canadian Prairies early this week will be unfavorable for maturing crops and will likely delay the early harvest. Cool or very cool weather will, at times, slow crop development elsewhere in the region. A significant freeze is not expected this week but lows may dip into the 30s Fahrenheit in some locations, which would mean a risk for frost or an isolated light freeze condition. Crops, especially canola, will need an extended growing season to escape damage or quality reductions from fall freeze conditions.

COOLER FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Texas is seeing stressful heat and high fire danger. Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected for portions of the Southern Plains today and Wednesday -- this has helped to lower temperatures from the excessive heat conditions some of the region has been experiencing. Another system moving through the Upper Midwest will bring rain and storm chances to the Great Lakes to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Central Plains the latter half of this week into Saturday, with locally heavy rain possible across the Central Plains.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR EUROPE

Hot, dry weather again covers west and central Europe. Episodes of heat and dryness during the summer period is likely to mean yield and production declines for corn, sunflower, soybeans and sugar beets. Crops are likely filling at this time so the dryness is more harmful than the higher temperatures. The forecast suggests that while temperatures may be lower at times, the chance for significant rainfall is less likely. Dry/hot weather also reduces soil moisture for winter wheat and rapeseed crops.

DRIER, HOTTER BLACK SEA PATTERN

In the Black Sea region, the region is likely to be drier and somewhat hotter during the next week to 10 days. Crops are in filling to maturing stages at this time. There's some impact to late-filling crops but mostly favorable conditions for maturing crops at this time. Soil moisture is reported as adequate for early-planted winter grains, but will be diminishing with time.

MAINLY FAVORABLE CHINA CONDITIONS

Northeast China sees good-to-excellent moisture conditions for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans. Episodes of showers and rain and cooler weather will mostly favor developing crops.

CONTINUED INDIA MONSOON RAIN

An active monsoon rainy season continues in India. Heavy weekend rains were reported in northeast and central interior India and in the southwest. Rain continued in the central interior soybean belt Monday. It was drier in and near Gujarat, India during the weekend with some light showers Monday.

RAINS NEEDED FOR AUSTRALIA WHEAT CROP

Wheat approaching or in reproduction in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland needs significant rain to prevent further declines in an already poor wheat crop. There is no significant rainfall in sight. The low temperatures last week were near or slightly under freezing (28-32 F or minus 2 to zero C). Any flowering wheat would be at risk of significant damage in areas of 32 F or lower. Conditions are more favorable in wheat areas of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria at this time.

RAIN FOR ARGENTINA, BRAZIL

There was some damage to flowering wheat in central Brazil due to freezing conditions in early July. Little or no damage is expected from recent cold weather. An organized frontal boundary will develop across Argentina on Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing increased showers and thunderstorms to Buenos Aires, with localized heavy rainfall a potential threat. This front should drive northward into Uruguay and northeast Argentina by Thursday night into Friday, with Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Corrientes, and Chaco seeing the potential for localized heavy rainfall in Argentina. By this weekend, rain and storms should focus across Misiones in Argentina, Paraguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana, and Sao Paulo in Brazil, with the heavy rain threat expected to continue into early next week for those locations.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(CZ)

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