DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

September corn closed down 11 1/2 cents per bushel and December corn was down 11 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 1 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 1 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 9 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 12 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents. The September U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.188 at 96.665. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 58.63 points at 27,161.22. August gold is up $10.10 at $1,433.40, September silver is up $0.27 at $16.24 and September copper is down $0.0085 at $2.7075. August crude oil is down $1.89 at $54.89, August heating oil is down $0.0360, August RBOB is down $0.0532 and August natural gas is down $0.022.

Corn:

December corn fell 11 3/4 cents to $4.29 3/4 Thursday with selling likely coming from noncommercials that were late to the party getting long and are now growing impatient with positions falling back from their highs in June. Thursday's U.S. weather map shows rain in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, but is most dry everywhere else. Extremely hot temperatures are Thursday's main feature with excessive heat warnings posted across the Midwest, not expected to moderate much until Sunday. After that, milder summer temperatures are expected to prevail, favorable for crops. NOAA's new forecast for August expects mostly normal temperatures and normal precipitation in the central U.S., above normal precipitation for the western Midwest. Thursday morning's U.S. Drought Monitor showed no drought across the Corn Belt, but many producers would disagree, citing a need for rain and facing a dry forecast the next two weeks. Producers in southern Minnesota are facing the opposite challenge, having received too much rain and needing a break. Early Thursday, USDA said 7.9 million bushels (mb) of corn were sold for export last week and 26.9 mb were shipped, short of the pace needed to reach USDA's export estimate by the end of August. Fundamentally speaking, this latest sell-off in corn prices may be a sign of vertigo among traders, not having much basic information to go on until USDA's second planting survey shows up on Aug. 12. Technically, the trend in cash corn is back to sideways and choppy with plenty of basic questions still unanswered. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $4.28 Tuesday, 8 cents below the September contract and down from its five-year high. In outside markets, most commodities are trading lower Thursday, while the September U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.19.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 1 1/2 cents to $8.99 Thursday, staying in a narrow trading range and holding above last week's low at $8.90 1/4. What soybeans are not doing is showing any concern about the current stretch of hot temperatures across the Midwest, stressing crops and livestock at least through Saturday. Beyond Saturday, milder summer temperatures are expected to return and will be more crop-friendly even though there is not much rain in the forecast for the next two weeks. So far this summer, November prices appear content to stay around the $9.00 mark with general expectations for a smaller crop in 2019. Just how much smaller is the big question and we won't know much about yield until Sept. 12. Earlier Thursday, USDA said 4.7 mb of soybeans were sold for export last week and 33.4 mb were shipped, on pace for USDA's export estimate, if China ships the 193 mb of previous sales it is still holding. On that topic, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC.com that he will talk to Chinese trade officials by phone Thursday afternoon and, if all goes well, a meeting may follow. A lack of trade agreement with China continues to be the top bearish influence limiting soybean prices and is keeping November soybeans near the middle of a broad, sideways trading range. Technically speaking, the trend is sideways in cash soybeans with support around $7.85. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.13 Wednesday, falling back from a new one-year high and 69 cents below the August contract.

Wheat:

September KC wheat ended lower a fourth consecutive day, closing down 9 cents at $4.32 3/4, while September Chicago wheat fell 12 cents to its lowest close in over a month. Prices remain pressured by winter wheat harvest progress and, while this week's hot temperatures are not pleasant, the dry conditions are good for harvest. Wheat prices are also being pressured by this week's drop corn prices. In spite of talk that conditions are on the dry side in Europe, Europe's wheat prices continue to sag lower, not showing much concern about this year's limited issues. The seven-day forecast is mostly dry for spring wheat areas in the northwestern U.S. and temperatures that have been on the cool side are expected to turn hotter Monday. Even so, the spring wheat crop appears to be doing well, overall. Fundamentally speaking, it remains difficult to expect higher wheat prices when the world is expecting record wheat production in 2019. Technically, the trend is currently sideways for all three cash wheats and prices are close to challenging support. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.20 Wednesday, 22 cents below the September contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.85, down from its highest prices in four years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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