DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

July corn closed up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December corn was up 3 3/4 cents. July soybeans closed up 6 1/4 cents and November soybeans were up 5 cents. September KC wheat closed up 13 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 12 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was up 7 1/2 cents. The September U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.168 at 95.550. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 18.54 points at 26,737.67. August gold is up $18.30 at $1,418.40, July silver is up $0.11 at $15.40 and July copper is up $0.0025 at $2.7070. August crude oil is up $0.09 at $57.52, August heating oil is down $0.0067, August RBOB is down $0.0008 and July natural gas is up $0.114.

Corn:

July corn closed up 4 1/2 cents at $4.46 3/4 Monday, after a weekend of rain fell across much of the Corn Belt and around the Mississippi Delta, adding to crop condition concerns and river traffic problems. The seven-day forecast is still wet for the most of the Corn Belt, but anticipated amounts are getting lighter with warmer weather also expected ahead. Monday's Crop Progress report won't be much help on planted acres, but will be watched for a good-to-excellent crop rating that was 59% last week. On the demand side, USDA said 24.3 million bushels (mb) of corn were inspected for export last week, less than the 42.1 mb needed each week to achieve USDA's export estimate in 2018-19. Friday's Acreage and June 1 Grain Stocks reports from USDA have potential to move prices, but it is difficult to tell which way as the acreage estimate is the wild card in this year's balance sheet for corn. Anything significantly less than USDA's current estimate of 89.8 million planted acres is potentially bullish. Until Friday, trading in grains is apt to be cautious. Technically, the trend in corn remains up with cash prices among their highest in five years. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $4.24 Friday, 19 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.17 and outside commodities are mixed. August crude oil is up 9 cents after the White House announced new sanctions on Iran.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed up 6 1/4 cents at $9.09 Monday, finding modest support once again after another weekend of rainy conditions around much of the Corn Belt, keeping planting conditions difficult. Monday's weather map also showed more rain in the Eastern Corn Belt and near the Mississippi Delta where conditions have been chronically wet this year. Because USDA's Crop Progress report includes prevented acres in their planted total, Monday afternoon's planting progress estimate will not be helpful, but we will get a planting estimate from USDA Friday. Keep in mind USDA's survey was conducted in the first two weeks of June and will be updated in August. That means Friday's estimate will not have the final say on either corn or soybean acres, but it should be an improvement and help narrow the range of the market's current guesses. USDA's finding of soybean stocks on June 1 is certain to be bearish and will be another reminder of how this year's record ending stocks are increasing with only limited trade to China. Fundamentally, the outlook for soybean prices remains bearish, but surprise is possible in Friday's report. Technically, the trend is up in cash soybeans and prices are near their one-year high at $8.41. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.27 Friday, down from its highest price in a year and 76 cents below the July contract.

Wheat:

September KC wheat closed up 13 cents at $4.65 1/2, finding support above its 100-day average. Temperatures are expected in the upper 90s this week in Europe, a new bullish threat that has potential to stress wheat in its reproductive phase. September milling wheat in Paris was up 3 euros per ton Monday or 1.7%. Here in the U.S., Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report should show winter wheat harvest progress, but conditions remain difficult in the eastern Midwest where rain is falling again on Monday morning, pushing September Chicago wheat up 12 cents. U.S. spring wheat had a high good-to-excellent rating of 77% last week and will likely come in high again Monday afternoon with a favorable forecast for the week ahead. The western Canadian Prairie is expecting more rains this week to help crop conditions, while eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are on the dry side. Overall, world wheat crop conditions remain generally favorable, but the few threats that have popped up deserve watching. Technically, the trend is currently up for cash SRW wheat and sideways for HRW and HRS wheats. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.32 Friday, down from its recent three-month high and 15 cents below the July contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $5.11, down from its highest price in ten months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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