DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

July corn closed up 9 cents per bushel and December corn was up 7 3/4 cents. July soybeans closed up 12 1/4 cents and November soybeans were up 12 1/4 cents. July KC wheat closed up 3 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 4 1/4 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/2 cents. The September U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.442 at 96.140. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 177.28 points at 26,681.28. August gold is up $45.20 at $1,394.00, July silver is up $0.49 at $15.45 and July copper is up $0.0300 at $2.7105. August crude oil is up $3.06 at $57.03, July heating oil is up $0.0557, August RBOB is up $0.0549 and July natural gas is down $0.087.

Corn:

July corn closed up 9 cents at $4.50, regaining some of this week's lost ground while traders remain largely in the dark about how many acres of corn have been planted in 2019. Wednesday's weather map showed rain in the northwestern U.S. Plains, parts of the eastern Midwest and northeastern U.S. The seven-day forecast remains wet for most of the Corn Belt and Thursday's new outlook for July has below normal temperatures for the central Corn Belt and above normal precipitation for the central and Western Corn Belt. With the cooler forecast, reaching adequate growing degree days will be a challenge for the northern Corn Belt this year. On the demand side, export activity is fading with corn's higher prices. USDA said 1.5 million bushels (mb) of corn were sold for export last week. Shipments totaled 25.2 mb, less than the 38.4 mb needed each week to reach USDA's export goal. USDA later reported 4.8 million bushels (mb) of corn (122,000 mt) were sold to Mexico, 2.05 mb for 2018-19 and the rest (70,000 mt) for 2019-20. The future of corn prices depends largely on how many acres got planted and what yields will be in 2019. Those are two factors we don't know much about yet, but should have a better idea on plantings after USDA's Acreage estimate June 28. Technically, the trend of cash corn prices remains up with prices near their highest level in five years. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $4.21 Wednesday, 20 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.44 with increased talk of a possible rate cut in July. August crude oil is up over $3.00 after Iran shot down a U.S. military drone, reported Marketwatch.com and other sources.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed up 12 1/4 cents at $9.15 1/2 Thursday, also responding to the July forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which expects below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across much of the Midwest. After a late planting season, which is still going on, the cool, wet outlook is not ideal for yield potential and we continue to anticipate below-trend yields, which USDA is expected to acknowledge in the July 11 WASDE report. This year's weather challenges have taken some of the focus off the lack of trade with China, but those problems have not gone away. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales of soybeans totaled 21.0 mb and shipments totaled 27.1 mb, less than the 30.8 mb needed each week to reach USDA's export goal by the end of August. USDA later said 6.95 mb (189,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations, 4.63 mb (126,000 mt) for 2018-19 and the rest (63,000 mt) for 2019-20. Fundamentally speaking, the outlook remains bearish for U.S. soybeans as long as China is not a willing buyer. This year's poor weather start is not significant enough yet to bring down ending soybean stocks to bullish levels, but warmer and drier weather is going to have to show up sometime to have a decent crop. Technically, the trend is up in cash soybeans and prices are near their one-year high at $8.41. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.27 Wednesday, near its highest price in a year and 77 cents below the July contract.

Wheat:

July KC wheat closed up 3 cents at $4.60 1/2, taking back part of this week's loss with rain in the seven-day forecast threatening to disrupt the winter wheat harvest. More rain also is expected across SRW wheat areas in the eastern Midwest, but they have seen so much already, we almost quit talking about it. On the other hand, winter wheat in the northwestern U.S. is doing well and continues to show high crop ratings. The western Canadian Prairie is one area that is welcoming rain at this time and there is a broad coverage of moderate to heavy amounts in the seven-day forecast. A drier forecast for eastern Ukraine, southern Russia and Russia's spring wheat areas offers some concern, but is not considered serious yet. With over 93% of the world's wheat grown outside the U.S. and most of it doing well, the outlook for wheat prices remains bearish in 2019. Technically, the trend is currently up for cash SRW wheat and sideways for HRW and HRS wheats. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.39 Wednesday, down from its recent three-month high and 18 cents below the July contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $5.07, down from its highest price in ten months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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