DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Urea, 10-34-0 Fertilizer Prices Fall Below Last Year's Levels

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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At $751/ton, the average retail price of 10-34-0 starter fertilizer is 1% lower than last year. (DTN Chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to drift slowly lower, according to prices tracked by DTN for the second week of December 2022. This has been the general trend in prices over the last several months.

Of the eight major fertilizers, seven were slightly lower. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

DAP had an average price of $920/ton, MAP $950/ton, potash $819/ton, urea $784/ton, 10-34-0 $751/ton, anhydrous $1,415/ton and UAN28 $$581/ton.

The remaining fertilizer, UAN32, was just slightly more expensive than last month with an average price of $681/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.85/lb.N, anhydrous $0.86/lb.N, UAN28 $1.04/lb.N and UAN32 $1.07/lb.N.

A CoBank report titled "2023 The Year Ahead: Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy", examines the outlook for agriculture into the next year.

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At the top of the list of challenges is lower forecasted farm income. The U.S. ag economy has fared well in recent years, posting new record highs for net farm income in 2021 and then again in 2022.

CoBank says this might change in 2023 amid skyrocketing production costs, steeply higher interest rates, an elevated dollar and weakening domestic and export demand caused by declining real incomes amidst spiraling inflation.

The report also touched a bit on the outlook for fertilizer in 2023. Wholesale fertilizer costs look to remain high during the first half of 2023 as cooperatives not only absorb high barge and rail costs, but also compete with the export markets for limited supply of nutrients.

Some 70% of the European fertilizer production was offline during the third quarter 2022 as the region dealt with record-high natural gas prices.

"Fertilizer prices will likely begin and end 2023 at elevated levels, minimizing the opportunities for retailers to capture the same level of carry margin that was available during 2021/2022," the report said.

The entire report can be read at https://www.cobank.com/….

Most retail fertilizer prices continue to be higher in price than one year earlier, although two are now slightly lower.

10-34-0 is now 1% lower while urea is 12% less expensive than one year ago. UAN28 is 1% higher, both anhydrous and UAN32 are 3% more expensive, MAP is 4% higher, potash is 5% more expensive and DAP is 10% higher compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

High inputs prices, including fertilizers, remain on farmers' list of concerns, according to the most recent edition of the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA

Dec 6-10 2021

840

919

778

887

Jan 3-7 2022

863

931

807

913

Jan 31-Feb 4 2022

877

933

813

905

Feb 28-Mar 4 2022

879

937

815

887

Mar 28-Apr 1 2022

1033

1045

868

1022

Apr 25-29 2022

1049

1082

881

1004

May 23-27 2022

1056

1082

879

989

Jun 20-Jun 24 2022

1040

1058

885

902

Jul 18-22 2022

1007

1043

887

836

Aug 15-19 2022

978

1026

881

807

Sep 12-16 2022

952

1009

877

808

Oct 10-14 2022

925

986

863

824

Nov 7-11 2022

931

980

853

812

Dec 5-Dec 9 2022

920

950

819

784

Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32

Dec 6-10 2021

756

1372

577

661

Jan 3-7 2022

795

1430

584

679

Jan 31-Feb 4 2022

826

1487

600

699

Feb 28-Mar 4 2022

837

1487

603

703

Mar 28-Apr 1 2022

896

1526

637

711

Apr 25-29 2022

906

1534

631

730

May 23-27 2022

906

1531

634

731

Jun 20-Jun 24 2022

905

1497

616

716

Jul 18-22 2022

894

1431

598

696

Aug 15-19 2022

878

1336

576

676

Sep 12-16 2022

861

1369

578

665

Oct 10-14 2022

759

1417

576

670

Nov 7-11 2022

758

1434

582

680

Dec 5-Dec 9 2022

751

1415

581

681

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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Russ Quinn